Study On The Impact Of Technological Progress On Energy Rebound Effect

Technological progress can improve energy efficiency,and reduce the energy cost per unit of output.It increases energy consumption from two aspects: substitution effect and income effect,which results in energy rebound effect.High energy rebound effect makes the desire to save energy and reduce emission by improving energy efficiency,which is caused by technological progress,is difficult to achieve,or even diametrically opposed.This paper focused on the analysis of 36 industries' energy rebound effect and its evolution trend and influencing factors,then put forward policy recommendations.1.The paper used the SBM efficiency measure model and the ML productivity index,which bases on the DEA method and takes account of non expected outputs,to measure the green energy efficiency and generalized technical progress rate of industries between 2001 and 2014.It divided 36 industries into low,moderate and high energy efficiency industries according to the green energy efficiency.The results showed that: low energy efficiency industry mainly consists of high energy consumption and high pollution industries,moderate energy efficiency industry is mainly for the traditional industries,while the high efficiency industry is mainly composed of high-tech industries.Overall,the level of science and technology of industries improved continuously,and the higher the industry's green energy efficiency,general technical progress rate is also higher.There were two troughs in the generalized technical progress rate in 2008 and 2014,which is mainly related to the 2008 financial crisis and China's recent economic restructuring.2.The energy rebound effect of industry under generalized technological progress was calculated based on the original meaning of energy rebound effect.The results showed that: The average energy rebound effect of the 36 industries in 2001-2014 was 127.46%,which showed the “reverse effect”.Among them,the average energy rebound effect of gold smelting,oil processing and other 9 industries is greater than 100%,boosting the average energy rebound effect of the industry.Energy saving and resilience of low energy efficiency industries are significantly higher than the other two industries,and they fluctuated greatly due to the impact of the economic environment.3.The paper established panel model to do empirical study on factors influencing energy rebound effect.The results showed that: The scientific research investment had the most obvious impact on the energy rebound effect.Except for moderate energy efficiency industry,the scientific research investment was negatively related to the energy rebound effect,which means the increase of investment in scientific research is conducive to reducing the energy rebound effect.Ownership structure also has a negative impact on energy rebound effect,indicating that large state-owned enterprises can play a positive role to reduce energy rebound effect.The impact of energy structure,labor productivity,energy productivity and cost margins on the energy rebound effect of different types of industries were different due to the different nature of the industries.4.The energy policy made by the government should focus on improving the energy efficiency of low energy efficiency industries,and reducing energy rebound effect in the moderate and high energy efficiency industries.The increase of scientific research investment,the adjustment of ownership structure and energy structure,the government macro regulation should be combined to reduce rebound effect and realize energy saving and emission reduction finally.