Research On Variation Of Energy Intensity, Energy Rebound Effect Based On The View Of Economic Growth Pattern Transformation

In the paper, the growth and reduction of of China's energy consumption are studied by taking energy consumption as research object, transformation of economic growth pattern as the breakthrough point, and consumption reducing as goal. The main contents and conclusions of the paper are provided as follows:(1) Decoupling phenomenon between energy consumption and economic growth is analyzed. Firstly, the evolution path of decoupling elasticity between energy consumption and income is analyzed by using decoupling theory. Secondly, reasons for the fluctuation of energy consumption elastic are explained from the perspectives such as economic income, technological progress and production factor alternative. The conclusions reveal that changing economic growth mode are effective ways to realize the decoupling between energy consumption and economic growth.(2) Statuses to China's transformation of economic growth pattern are analyzed. The statuses to China's transformation of economic growth pattern are identified from the perspectives such as technical progress and production factor alternative. The empirical analysis show that China's economic growth is still belong to extensive mode, rapid economic growth is also dependent on production expansion, capital expansion is still the dominant factors of economic growth, energy consumption expansion obviously accelerate but motivation of labor expansion is still lacking. Therefore, technology progress and production factor alternative are the keys to chang economic growth mode, promote economic growth and reduce energy consumption.(3) Relationships between economic growth and energy intensity are analyzed. Firstly, the relationships under the action of technological progress are analyzed by using system dynamic theory. The conclusions reveal that the negative effect of reducing energy intensity on the economic growth cannot be ignored, and reducing energy intensity should take technological progress as premise. Secondly, the relationships under the action of energy price are analyzed by using optimum theory. The conclusions reveal that the relationships between energy intensity and economic growth are uncertainty under the effect of energy price, and realizing economic growth by mean of capital expansion should take increase of capital investment efficiency as the prerequisite. (4) Energy rebound effects caused by technology progress are analyzed. Firstly, the mechanism of short-term energy rebound effect is analyzed. In the short term, energy efficiency promotion will lead to snob effect, improving energy efficiency elasticity and reducing energy-labor substitution effect are effective means to reduce energy intensity effect. Secondly, the mechanism of long-term energy rebound effect is analyzed. In the long run, energy efficiency promotion will also lead to snob effect, improving the elasticity of economic income to labor, raising the elasticity of energy comsumption to energy efficiency,reducing the capital intensity effect and energy-capital substitution effect are helpful to reduce energy intensity effect.(5) Influence factors and their influence paths to terminal energy intensity are analyzed. Firstly, influence factors and their effects to terminal energy intensity are analyzed by using the LMDI decomposition technique. The conclusions reveal that the influences of energy structure and industrial structure on terminal energy intensity of are not obvious, and influence of abor intensity on energy intensity is greater than energy-labor configuration. Secondly, the direct effects and indirect effects of energy structure, industrial structure, energy-labor configuration, labor productivity to energy intensity are analyzed bu using path analysis model. The conclusions reveal that energy structure optimization, industrial structure adjustment, industry labor productivity promotion are all directly or indirectly effect energy intensity reducing.