Energy Rebound Effect Analysis Based On Technological Progress In China

Energy, same as capital, labor and raw materials, as a factor of production, plays an important role in the economic operation. It is a fundamental driving force and infrastructure resources of social production, and also is the material basis of socio-economic sustainable development. China, as an energy production and energy consuming countries, the overall level of energy consumption and per capita levels are rising. Statistics show that:At present, China’s energy consumption of20%of the world total GDP is less than10%of the world’s total. Close to the world average per capita energy consumption, per capita GDP is only50%of the world average. China’s total energy consumption is comparable to the U.S. GDP of only the37%of the United States; GDP and Japan, and the total energy consumption is4.7times that of Japan. The above data show that China’s rapid economic growth over-reliance on energy consumption. With the rapid development of China’s economy, the energy as a basic resource constraints to sustainable economic development phenomenon has become increasingly evident. How to ensure the sustainable use of energy, so as to realize the sustainable development of the economy, which problem is becoming the forefront of research problems of modern economics, and also the real problems that modern enterprises are facing.On a macro level, countries are encouraged to scientific and technological innovation, it is desirable to improve the efficiency of energy use, thereby reducing the overall energy consumption through technological progress; On a micro level, enterprises expect to reduce the energy input through the introduction of new technologies and equipments, carrying out energy-saving technological transformation. More and more scholars have begun to energy economy and modern enterprise energy management system, a comprehensive, in-depth research. However whether it will reduce the overall level of energy consumption or not through technological progress in China, is still to be further studied. The general view is that as technology advances, some kind of improvement of energy efficiency will reduce the demand for energy. However, improvement of energy efficiency is often accompanied by a decline in the cost of energy use, which will cause the expansion of demand. That is to say, when technic progress, as the energy consumption reduce by1%, the unit energy consumption that take energy as input factors is not the same reduction in the proportion of1%. This is to improve the energy efficiency in the process of the rebound effect. Foreign scholars’study confirmed the rebound effect is present. The existence of the rebound effect lead to effort decreases than expected which the government take to improve the efficiency of energy use and energy-saving. Energy rebound effect is a new topic of academics and policy makers. There is few theoretical and empirical research of the relevant studies. Therefore, It is particularly necessary to study energy rebound effect in China whether considered from a theoretical point of view or practical point of view.Therefore, in this paper, we do an in-depth study on the above issues based on the point of theoretical and empirical view. Also, we analysis the impact of technological progress on China’s energy consumption, and to estimate the degree of influence of the technological progress of China’s total energy consumption, then given policy recommendations to reduce our energy consumption.The papers by the following aspects:Firstly, a comprehensive combing the dynamic of the rebound effect on energy at home and abroad. Through literature review found that the energy rebound effect study abroad in terms of theoretical or empirical research more domestic scholars rebound effect research is still in the primary stage, the relevant theoretical and empirical research than less. And domestic scholars regarded all the factors that affect the energy efficiency as technological progress, which leading to errors in estimates of the rebound effect.Secondly, based on the neoclassical theory of economic growth, the direct energy rebound effect and indirect energy rebound effect theoretical analysis, explanations and generation of China’s energy efficiency rebound effect and mechanism from a theoretical point of view.Thirdly, based on the theory, combined with our existing research, further decomposed the value of the effect of changes in energy efficiency technology by logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI). Taking into account the quantitative indicators, we can only take the adjustment value of industrial structure into consideration. Therefore, we decomposed the effect factors of energy efficiency as technology value and industrial structure, then select the country data for the study sample, taking GDP for the output variable, capital, labor, energy as input variables, and based on1978-2010time-series data to calculate energy rebound effect in China.Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, we conclud: China’s energy rebound effect exists, and the overall trend is upward, which is different from part of the domestic scholars. But our overall energy rebound effect is significantly less than the100%, indicating the efficiency of energy use caused by technological progress and gradually reduce the total energy consumption of the method is feasible; Individual year and interval rebound effect values are quite different, the impact of technological progress on energy efficiency is a dynamic. The process of China’s energy rebound effect in different time periods with different degree of volatility; It lies on enterprises to reduce energy consumption through improving technological progress to improve energy efficiency. Therefore, it is important to reduce the cost of enterprise technology innovation, guide enterprises to develop renewable resources, improve the external environment of the growth of energy service companies. And it is the key to encourage enterprise to get energy-saving than gradually lead to the overall energy consumption in China.Innovation of this paper are the following:Firstly, because the lack of existing research, we use the LMDI decompose the value of technological progress from the factors that affect the energy efficiency, than give a further precise result by rebuilding the energy rebound effect model, which overcome the majority of scholars shorts that view all energy efficiency factors (industrial restructuring, government regulation, other factors) as technical progress; Secondly, with the help of this rebuild the model, we use the data of1978-2010in China to estimation and analysis the energy rebound effect on macro-economic level; Thirdly, according to the results of theoretical and empirical research, we analysis the cause of the status quo of China’s energy consumption, and give policy recommendations to reduce the total energy consumption in China.