Research On The Appropriate Scale Of China's Foreign Exchange Reserves Under The New Normal Background

Before the reform and opening up,China's foreign exchange reserves is extremely scarce.But with the reform and opening up,the reform of foreign exchange management system,joining WTO and a series of policies and measures implemented,the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves was risen.By 2006,China's foreign exchange reserve has become the first in the world.Under normal circumstances,adequate foreign exchange reserves can promote a country's economic development,but also reflects the strength of a country's economy,but the excessive foreign exchange reserves will lead to a state's idle resources,further lead to inflation and many other negative effects.Therefore,the total amount of foreign exchange reserve should be based on the actual situation of China,to determine the appropriate scale.China's total foreign exchange reserves in In June 2014 reached the highest,at this time,the domestic and foreign scholars generally believed that the high amount of China's foreign exchange reserves,is the state of super moderate scale.Since China's foreign exchange reserve has been in the downward trend,as the economy has entered a new norm,and the implementation of "The Belt and Road" strategy,and some scholars believed that China's foreign exchange reserve is insufficient in this context,the moderate scale of China's foreign exchange reserves is a problem worthy of study.This paper first introduces the domestic and foreign research on foreign exchange reserve theory and research model,comparing the advantages and disadvantages of each model,and then according to the development situation of China's foreign exchange reserves,think the continued appreciation of the dollar,"The Belt and Road" strategy to promote outward investment,changes in external debt,economic development cycle and other factors are the cause of decline in China's foreign exchange reserves in recent years,according to the actual situation of China's foreign exchange reserves,foreign exchange reserve will amend Agarwal in the original model by indicator to frequent tradering of foreign exchange reserves,debt servicing of the foreign exchange reserves,the prevention of foreign exchange reserves,and other indicators of the foreign exchange reserves to support foreign investment,budgets the moderate scale of China's foreign exchange reserves.The results show that in the new economic norm "and The Belt and Road" strategic background,China's total foreign exchange reserves remained over moderate scale,but the gap between the two more in view of this situation,this article finally puts forward some suggestions and measures from the aspects of adjusting the foreign investment and foreign trade policies,improve the foreign exchange management system,improve the management of China's capital account and establish a diversified foreign exchange reserves etc.