The New Normal Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserve Moderate Scale Problem Under Study

1994 years ago,China's foreign exchange reserve has been in a state of relatively lack.With China's foreign exchange management system reform in 1994,in 2001 after joining the WTO,China's foreign exchange reserves rapid growth year after year.At the end of 2006,China's foreign exchange reserves total breakthrough trilliondollar mark,first in the world.Although enough foreign exchange reserves to a country's economy has a positive effect,but the excessive foreign exchange reserves and will cause the waste of resources and other negative effects,therefore,a country's foreign exchange reserves should be kept moderate scale.The total scale of Chinese foreign exchange reserve than internationally recognized reasonable level.Along with our country economy enters the new normal,Chinese foreign exchange reserve scale growth is slowing,since June 2014,Chinese foreign exchange reserve scale after peak value,began to fall,the end of the Chinese foreign exchange reserve has been on the rise.Although Chinese foreign exchange reserve scale is still the world's total,but felt the lack of Chinese foreign exchange reserve scale voice rang again.Under the new normal,Chinese foreign exchange reserve moderate scale how much worth studying.This article first chapter is the introduction to this article research background,research contents,research methods and research significance are introduced.In the second chapter of this article researched on the foreign exchange reserves at home and abroad the research model and research theory of moderate scale,in contrast,on the basis of the theory,advantages and disadvantages of each model,combined with China's national conditions,this article choose agarwal model to study China's foreign exchange reserve amount of moderate scale.In the third chapter analyzes the process of Chinese foreign exchange reserve scale change and a decline in economic scale of China's foreign exchange reserves under the new normal.This paper argues that,under the new normal economy,due to the changes in China's foreign debt scale;Change development strategy,vigorously support of "going out";The federal reserve to raise interest rates and a stronger dollar,the currency devaluation under pressure,and so on factors,prompted China's foreign exchange reserves.By 2016,the total scale of Chinese foreign exchange reserve approaching $3 trillion,while foreign exchange reserves is still ranked the first,but the lack of China's foreign exchange voice rang again.Chinese foreign exchange reserve moderate scale quantity how much to study and analysis in the fourth chapter of this article.In the fourth chapter,based on China's national conditions,the revised agarwal model.Often traded in original foreign exchange reserves,on the basis of joined the debt repayment of foreign exchange reserves,preventive foreign exchange reserves and to support the strategy of "going out" of foreign exchange reserves.Further estimate the moderate capacity of each part,the total foreign exchange reserves in our country moderate scale.Through the statistical data of 1985-2016 a empirical research,this paper draw the conclusion: 1985-2003,China's foreign exchange reserves,since 2004,Chinese foreign exchange reserve amount more than moderate foreign exchange reserve.Along with our country economy enters the new normal state,the total scale of China's foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange reserves,the gap between moderate scale is less and less.In this paper,the fifth chapter according to: economic under the new normal,Chinese foreign exchange reserve scale is still too much research conclusion,put forward using reasonable excess foreign exchange reserves increase gold reserves,to set up the strategic resource reserves.