The Moderate Scale Of Foreign Exchange Reserve And Its Influence Factors Of Sustainable Development In China

In the end of 2015,Chinese foreign exchange reserves reaching $ 3.33 trillion,compared with the record of last year,there was an decrease of $ 512.66 billion.In today's international environment,the economic globalization today,the scale of foreign exchange reserves to an open economic and trade development is significant.It can be used to regulate the imbalance in international payments of a country,to ensure that a country's ability to repay debt,still can intervene in currency markets,a stable currency,increase international confidence in the important major currencies,can also reduce the\"economic crisis\".All things need to moderate and right amount,the amount of foreign exchange reserves should be controlled in a reasonable scope,quantity too large amount of foreign exchange reserves is not rational.Although we think wealth in inertial thinking is always the more the better,but the excessive wealth sometimes is a kind of burden.Too large amount of foreign exchange reserves to some extent,is the performance of the allocation of resources waste,because of foreign investment can only made this kind of waste.At the same time,excessive reserve will also bring inflation to a certain extent,is not conducive to the stability of domestic prices in China,is unfavorable to the political and economic stability and security in our country.In the financial sector,a national monetary authorities to maintain the independence of monetary policy is very important,fiscal policy and monetary policy is usually the most effective means of regulating economic,if the amount of foreign exchange reserves are too high,will weaken the country's monetary policy independence to some extent,this is not conducive to the country's economic development.In today's global economy under the situation of trade liberalization,open multiple free trade area in our country today,China's economic and financial experts have started in the field of foreign exchange reserves in the face the problem of moderate scale,focus on the related research in this aspect.But due to the worldwide economics are not unified standards and conclusion,the appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserves standards on the issue with the theory of cognitive changing continuously,not reached a consensus.As developing countries of opening to the outside world,our country and the world changes,also how many foreign exchange reserves,China should have the current China's foreign exchange reserves is excessive or insufficient,all within the scale of Chinese scholars.This article writing mentality is as follows:look at the size of the foreign exchange reserves,mainly focus on measuring the degree of moderate scale and moderate the theoretical value and actual value comparison.Foreign exchange reserve has long been a problem,and is not a new topic,but in this paper,based on the problem of the moderate scale of the first through the introduction of foreign exchange reserves,the concept of sustainable development research of the influence factors of its sustainability.After a series of analysis and calculation can be concluded that:in recent years in our country exists the situation of the excess foreign exchange reserves,it is also known as the truth,this gap reaches its peak in 2013.Difference became smaller,the subsequent two years showed that the growth of China's foreign exchange reserves has slowed in recent years.At the same time,this paper analyzes the determinants of the sustainability of China's high foreign exchange reserves based on the source structure with the fact that China has been accumulating an increasingly high scale of foreign exchange reserves and faces the continuous devaluation of its reserve assets.Based on the change of the source structure,this paper analyzes the determinants and the internal mechanism of the sustainability of China's high foreign exchange reserves.Using a sample of China's fundamental economic indicators from 1985 to 2013,the author sets up a VAR model,which shows that Gross Domestic Product,Foreign Direct Investment,Exchange Rate,RMB Interest Rate and Export Dependence are the determinants of the sustainability of China's high foreign exchange reserves.In the short term and long term,the impact from the Export Dependence are rather dominant,along with GDP,contributes to the major impact.Consequently,the author concludes that,with the transformation of economic growth(from export-oriented economy to domestically driven economy),the pace of China's accumulating foreign exchange reserves will slow down and the scale of foreign exchange reserves relative to China's economy size may even demonstrate a declining trend.Therefore the policy makers should take the initiative in allocating the reserve asset more rationally to achieve value hedge and increment.