Research On Periodic Fluctuation Of BDI Index And Its Influencing Factors

The Baltic dry index(BDI),which reflects the overall level of worldwide dry bulk market,and quantifies the state of the market,has been highly concerned by the shipping industry and the international trade community.Therefore,it makes important sense for risk control in shipping and trading companies to have an in-depth analysis on the relationship of BDI with other economic variables and periodic regularity.This article uses the methods of both theoretical research and empirical analysis.There are four main contents in this article:First,to introduce worldwide dry bulk market and BDI.Second,to analyze periodic regularity of the shipping market,and compare it with actual situation;Third,using linear regression analysis,co integration test,causality test,impulse response analysis method to study the relationship between the BDI index and the iron ore price index,the international crude oil price index,soybean futures prices and the RMB exchange rate against the U.S.dollar,to conclude the co integration equation,to test the causal relationship and to discuss what is the relationship between them and BDI as well as to look for economic reasons behind the interpretation.At last,through the foregoing analysis of the BDI index obtained conclusions,the business strategy,policy recommendations to inspire.Compared to the previous research on BDI here and abroad,it is an innovation for this paper to use wavelet analysis method to study the BDI index,to use econometric theory to quantitatively study the relationship between BDI index and other economic factors.