Research On The Impact Of Housing Price Fluctuation On The Enterprise Investment

Since 2016,China's economy has entered a period of new normal.Under the influence of a series of policies such as the regulation of housing price,the adjustment of housing structure,and the strengthening of land control of government,China's real estate market has also entered a new stage of development.Is this coincidence or inevitable that the regulation of housing price is accompanied with a decline in investment growth?It has been proven that the fluctuation of housing price can affect the investment of companies through the mortgage guarantee channel.However,can the fluctuation of housing price affect investment through other channels such as the risk preference channel?Based on the risk preference channel,this paper studied the impact of the fluctuation of housing price on investment,which can help us understand the transmission mechanism of corporate investment caused by the fluctuation of housing price,so as to correctly judge and evaluate the impact of policies such as the limited-lending of real estate and purchasing restriction on the investment of real companies.We should take into account the development of entity enterprises while regulating housing price.This paper made use of the real estate data of provincial-level and the annual report data of listed companies from 2003 to 2016.Based on risk preference channels,the paper studied the impact of the fluctuation of housing price on corporate investment.Firstly,in terms of the impact on the scale of corporate investment,the risk preference effect and mortgage guarantee effect caused by the fluctuation of housing price had played an important role.Moreover,the effect of risk preference on corporate investment scale was more significant.Secondly,in terms of the impact on the corporate investment structure,this paper firstly examined the impact of the fluctuation of housing price on the absolute amount of the real estate investment and R&D investment.It was found that the risk preference effect and the mortgage guarantee effect would both generate positive impact on the investment scales.In terms of the proportion of investment in real estate and R&D,we found that the risk preference effect had a significant negative impact,and the mortgage guarantee effect had a positive impact.And the influencecoefficient of risk preference effect is greater than the mortgage guarantee effect.In other words,the fluctuation of housing price can drive corporate managers to choose real estate investments and crowd out R&D investments through risk appetite channels.The robustness test conducted by the IV model and substitution of correlation variables showed that the conclusion was reliable.Based on the above conclusions,this paper finally proposed the following countermeasures and suggestions: Firstly,while suppressing housing prices,investment tax cuts and other policies could be used to encourage and stimulate corporate investment,and the level of confidence and risk preference of corporate managers would be enhanced.The second is to build a multi-level corporate external financing system to reduce the sensitivity of corporate financing constraints to the fluctuation of housing price.Thirdly,the government can implement enterprise innovation support policies and subsidize R&D activities to avoid the crowding out effect caused by fluctuation of housing price and promote healthy development of the real economy.