Research On Real Esttate Value Projections And Pricing Of Housing Reveerse Mortgage Loan

As China enters into an aging society, the current retirement pension system andtraditional way of family support for the aged have been insufficient to deal with theaging crisis, it is urgent to find a new way to support the old people. Housing reversemortgage can be a good solution to the problem. How to price the implementation of anew financial product is the key problem. In this paper, we give a more detailed anddiscussion on the price fluctuations of the property and the risk followed, which asone of the basic elements of reverse mortgage pricing.The paper gives a practical background and theoretical introduction of housingreverse mortgage, and cited the main factors affecting the price fluctuations of theproperty. Then, we divide the real estate market into national and local market topredict the real estate value. We collect and collate the real estate price index of ourcountry. After passing an examination, we set up ARMA model and ARIMA model topredict the future trend of the real estate price index. According to the modelprediction results, without the sudden related policies, the three indices in periodicfluctuations will overall rise in the future. In the price analysis of the local market, weselect Beijing Shanghai and Chengdu’s residential housing price indices. Then arandom model is estimates for the data of the three cities. Based on the actualsituation has been improved the model and reduced the error effectively.Using the prediction of the real estate prices, this paper carries out an empiricaltesting of an annuity payment model. With reasonable assumptions of the factorsrelated, we use equation derived to calculate the loan amount in these two markets.Through analysis, we find that the participation in housing reverse mortgages canincrease disposable income effectively, improve the life quality and ease the pensionproblem of insufficient resources of the elders after retirement. This part of theargument for our offer reverse mortgage provides sufficient reasonable practicalsupport.We also provide recommendations on how to control the risk of fluctuations inthe value of the property, and point out the inadequacies of this paper and areas forimprovement at last.