The Real Estate Supply Chain Risk Simulation Research

The real estate industry is an important component of China's national economic development,and makes great contributions to the development of China's economy.After the period of high growth in the past ten years,the real estate industry has entered the new stage for adjustment and has lower profit margins.The real estate enterprises begin to seek diversified development to look for new profitable points,and have begun to get involved in the financial sector.In addition,in the real estate supply chain,the real estate enterprises are the core enterprise,and there is a large quantity of small and medium-sized construction enterprises in the supply chain faced with financing problems,which would affect the development of the entire real estate supply chain.In this context,the supply chain finance based on the real estate supply chain has a vaster development space.As a new type of financial model,supply chain finance,which has important economic value and social value,can solve the financial problem of small and medium-sized enterprises in the supply chain,improve the overall development level of supply chain,realize the integration of industry and capital and promote the transformation of industry upgrading.Therefore,this article takes the real estate supply chain finance as the research object,focuses on the real estate supply chain financial risk,does the real estate supply chain finance risk simulation research through the establishment of the system dynamics model,and makes some suggestions on the future supply chain finance development.First of all,this paper summarizes the domestic and international research status of real estate supply chain finance and its risk management,and elaborates the relevant theories about supply chain finance,real estate supply chain finance and its risk management.Based on it,this paper also analyzes the specific operation mode of real estate supply chain finance,and analyzes three basic financing mode : receivables financing mode,inventory financing mode and prepayment financing model.Through the literature research and questionnaire survey,it is found that the credit risk,operational risk,market risk and supply chain system risk have an significant influence on the real estate supply chain finance.Then,based on the theory of system dynamics,the system dynamics model of the real estate supply chain finance risk is established.And then define the boundary of real estate supply chain risk system,build causal diagram,analyze the internal structure of this system.At last,build the real estate supply chain finance risk system dynamics model.Finally,the simulation research is carried out by using the system dynamics model of the real estate supply chain risk.Through the expert scoring method,determine the effect of each factor and its weighting coefficient,and get the equation for this system.Then study the simulation of this system dynamic model and its risk control using Vensim PLE,and make some suggestions for the future development of the real estate supply chain finance.