Research On Emergency Scenario Reconstruction And Evolution Of Chemical Industry Park

In recent years,different kinds of emergency events have occurred in chemical industry park of China,caused huge threat to security of people's lives and property.With strong destruction and uncertainty of emergency events in chemical industry park,how to make effective emergency decision,control situation,reduce the losses in the shortest time,and to provide the experience of emergency management for similar incidents,is an important issue in the field of emergency management.The current study of emergency scenario reconstruction and evolution research mostly start from the disaster science view,focused on descript the feature of event(chain),lacking of emergency measures,with less integrity of scenario reconstruction and evolution,which cannot well support emergency decision-making.Aiming at the deficiency and limitation of current research,this paper,supported by National Natural Science Fund Project "chemical industry park accident scenario evolution reconstruction and emergency decision making research"(number: 71403293),from the view of emergency decision,along the logic of.scenario reconstruction and scenario evolution,analysis the emergency scenario.Firstly,Analysis elements of scenario,specific expression method of emergency scenario and measures based on knowledge element model in multi-level hierarchical structure according different element size.Secondly,use different theories and methods in mechanism and path of scenario evolution analysis.Applying the theory of dissipation structure in mechanism analysis of scenario evolution,found the mechanism of scenario evolution consistent with the characteristics of dissipative structure theory,and define the entropy of emergency scenario evolution.The Brusselator model used to express the evolution process of emergency scenario was established with positive and negative entropy index system,which analysis of scenarios examples.Through transforming relationship between scenario reconstruction and system dynamics model,establish scenario evolution SD model considering the emergency measures interference according example scenario reconstruction results.Simulate experiment of model,analyzing scenario evolution with different emergency measures,which support for decision-making.This article begin with emergency scenario reconstruction of Chemical Industry Park,analysis mechanism and path of emergency scenario evolution,which can contribute clearly emergency state and future trend of development to decision makers,support for emergency decision,which has important theoretical and practical significance.The relevant results can be further used in establishment of knowledge base,even the reasoning analysis of emergency scenarios through information technology.