| Taking Yangtze river economic belt and ASEAN ’ trade as the research object,this paper mainly analyzes the potential trade of the Yangtze river economic belt and ASEAN,by theoretical research combined with empirical analysis method.At first,The concept of trade potential is defined,then the main influence factors on trade potential should be classified.There are five main factors,such as economies,geographical factors,institutional factors,cultural factors and other factors.Explained the evolution of the trade gravity model,and then use it as a potential trade measure in this paper.On the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper studies total trade,balance of trade,import and export commodity structure and import trade(by country)between the Yangtze river economic belt and ASEAN.It is concluded that: the mainly products that the Yangtze river economic belt imports from ASEAN is commodity for minerals(5),chemical industry and its related products(class 6),plastic,rubber and its products(7)and mechanical appliances,recorder and reproducer device(16).The mainly products that the Yangtze river economic belt exports to ASEAN is in class 6,11,15,and16.In addition,by the bilateral trade dependency analysis of the Yangtze river economic belt and ASEAN’ trade relations,we find that the trade dependency between the Yangtze river economic belt and ASEAN is on the rise.By using trade gravity model,the paper quantifies influencing factors from Yangtze river economic belt-ASEAN trade potential,Respectively getting commodity structure and the overall level of model estimation results,calculating the potential value of overall trade and commodity structure.On total level of estimated results:GDP of the Yangtze river economic belt and ASEAN,total population of ASEAN,institutional arrangements(such as the CAFTA,GMS),Composite density index and High-tech exports are positively correlated with bilateral export flow.Besides geographic distance and the south China sea issue,hinder the development of bilateral trade.Commodity structure estimation result shows that exports of 6,11,15 and 16 products are positively related to GDP of the Yangtze river economic belt and ASEAN.According to the trade potential value,we found that the overall level and commodity structure to the export of ASEAN has huge potential.At last,based on model estimation results and theoretical basis,the paper provides some suggestions to discover trade potential between the Yangtze river economic belt and ASEAN. |
