Empirical Analysis And Policy Research On The Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate Change On Textile And Garment Export In Guangdong

Guangdong is a big province of China's exports of textile and garment,not only in the leading position in the industry,it also plays an important role in the income and employment as one of the traditional pillar industry of the province.However,the textile and garment exports in Guangdong province maintained a steady growth during the period from 2007 to 2014,but the growth rate and the proportion of the total textile and garment exports fell,At the same time,the RMB exchange rate continued to rise,the cumulative appreciation of the real exchange rate reached 34.47%.Exchange rate and export have always been a hot topic in the field of international trade,because there is a close relationship between the two.So,in the case of rising production costs and a weak global economy,for textile and garment industry of Guangdong,which depends heavily on the international market,is the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate an important reason for its exports? and how big is the impact? This paper will focus on the center for in-depth discussion and research.By using the panel data of 30 countries?regions? in the top 30 of Guangdong's textile and garment export volume in the year of 2007-2014,an extended gravity model is established to find that the real exchange rate of RMB appreciation significantly reduced textile and apparel exports in Guangdong Province,exports will decline by 1.8% when the real exchange rate of RMB have an appreciation of 1%;It is found that the impact of exchange rate on the export of Asian countries?regions? is greater than that of non Asian countries?regions? after classifying those countries?regions? into two groups by geographical distance;By introducing the lagged real exchange rate of RMB,the lagged real exchange rate of RMB is still significantly affected textile and garment exports in Guangdong Province,but the regression coefficient decreases;In addition,the actual GDP per capita of Guangdong and export countries?regions? and population there have a positive effect on export of textile and garment significantly,the impact of geographical distance and the economic crisis in 2008 are significantly negative.Therefore,this paper also puts forward a series of policy recommendations t,such as promoting the internationalization of the RMB,maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate,strengthening the function of the trade associations,and accelerating the transformation and upgrading of the export enterprises.