Forecast Of Construction Land Demand In Jingyu County

With the continuous development of urban and rural social economy and the improvement of urbanization level,the constantly growing scale of construction land in different regions must be experienced in urban and rural development,which requires rational transformation in the land application.Therefore,the scientific prediction of construction land can improve the contradiction between land supply and land demand,and realize the increase of construction land brought by economic development is reasonable increase,rather than unrestricted expansion.It can also explore the regulation approach of urban and rural land construction,build a resource-saving society,and provide the theoretical basis for government relevant policies.JingyuCounty is located in the northwest of BaishanCity,the southeastern part of JilinProvince.It is a typical mountainous county in the northeast.The county has more mountains and less land.The arable land is few,and a large proportion of the land is woodland.The development and utilization of land is so difficult that the casual utilization may cause ecological damage.In JingyuCounty,the majority of the construction land is in the flat lowlands.Recently,the amount of construction land increases and the contradiction of supply and demand aggravates year by year due to the agriculture,industry,infrastructure,and tourism project development.From 2006 to 2015,the occupation of Jingyu County's urban and rural construction land area,land for traffic and water conservancy,and other construction land keeps a rising tendency.Specifically,the area of urban and rural construction land increased from4548.51 hectares in 2006 to 5089.54 hectares in 2015,the land for traffic and water conservancy projectincreased from 815.29 hectares in 2006 to 1330.40 hectares in 2015,and other construction land remained stable.This thesis selects the demand of Jingyu County's construction land as research object,and collects the ten-year socio-economic statistics and land use change data of Jingyu from 2006 to 2015.However,the dynamic variation of the construction land and the diversity of the influencing factors in the 10 years of Jingyu County make the forecasting more difficult.Therefore,this thesis adopts the multiple linear regression model and the gray model to predict.The two models can improve the prediction accuracy on the basis of complementary advantages.The multiple linear regression modelpredicts thatthe demand for construction land in Jingyu County is 8225 hectares in 2025 by using the five influencing factors of Jingyu County's construction land.Then the GM(1,1)gray model which was established by the data of construction land area from 2006 to 2015 predicts thatthe demand for construction land in Jingyu County is 8168 hectares in 2025.Finally,the average of the two forecast results is taken as the forecast result of Jingyu County's construction land demand from 2016 to 2025,which provides scientific and reasonable basis for Jingyu County's long-term planning and development.