Study On The Construction Land Demand Forecast Of Panzhihua City During Urban Transformation

At present,China is in the period of rapid urbanization,with the social,economic and population development,urban construction land demand is also increasing.Resource-based cities as a special resource conditions and background of the development of the city,is currently facing or is about to face the plight of resource depletion,and urban transformation is the only way for its urban development.As the resource-based cities have the characteristics of special land use,urban land and other difficult characteristics of the general,how to solve the social development of resource depletion,new energy use and substitution,urban function replacement,urban facilities and renovation,and urban space,urban culture,urban ecology of the repair and other issues,the resource-based city construction land structure,the rational use of the development of a higher demand.Panzhihua as a typical resource-based city in the western region,whether it is the course of urban development and transformation,or the future is facing difficulties,such as urban construction land how reasonable and appropriate development,how to improve the urban living environment and so have a strong typical.This paper takes Panzhihua City as an example.Based on the definition and connotation of urban construction land,this paper analyzes the current situation of Panzhihua city construction land with the relevant historical literature and field investigation,and uses the gray relational method to clarify the main factors affecting Panzhihua city construction land Factor,and the GM(1,1)model was used to predict the demand of urban construction land in Panzhihua 2020 and 2030.Based on the corresponding forecast results,combined with the future development direction of Panzhihua,the planning structure of urban construction land in 2020 and 2030 is planned,and the relevant suggestions of land management are put forward.The main conclusions of this study are:(1)From the analysis of the status quo of urban construction land use in Panzhihua,the main problems are as follows:(1)The layout of urban spatial structure is scattered,the distance between urban functional areas is too far,the city center is not prominent,and the city function can not be fully realized;(2)industrial land and residential land mixed,cross,resulting in the layout of the city in the land,living environment,facilities and other difficulties;(3)urban construction land space expansion,supply and demand contradiction is more significant;(4)industrial land is too large,is leading to urban environment The problem is more serious,and the urban construction land tension situation intensified the main factor.(2)Based on the analysis of the 12 influencing factors related to the urban construction land demand of Panzhihua City by using the gray relational analysis,the population and economic factors are related to the urban construction land of Panzhihua City,among which the investment amount of fixed assets,The urban resident population and the gross domestic product(GDP)were the most related to the demand of Panzhihua urban construction land.(3)Based on the GM(1,1)model,the comprehensive weight of Panzhihua City’s urban construction demand is forecast based on the fixed assets investment,the urban resident population and the GDP.The amount of the urban construction land in Panzhihua City is 96.83 square kilometers in 2020,then in 2030 will be 117.52 square kilometers.(4)Panzhihua future urban development trend to south,and also include local areas east and west sides of the development,overall summary is: "expand south and north,east and west are limited";at the same time,the future of urban land management need to be reasonable to tap the existing land potential,promote the adjustment of urban construction land structure and the construction of reasonable land management policy mechanism and so on.