Risk Assessment On The Investment Of Pension Estate Projects Research

Currently,The aging population of China is increasing year by year,the pension issue has become more and more prominent.Because pension real estate enables ‘sense of security’ and ‘security of residence’ and relieves the governments’ pressure in pension security,it wins great support and active promotion from the governments.More and more developers become to join development and construction of pension real estate.Pension real estate has huge market demand anddevelopment potential,it is at the stage of exploration and preliminary development in China with relatively low overall profitability.Also,because of special consumer groups,involving a large number of links and lack of experience of the whole development,this generally leads to diversified risk factors and possible huge risk losses for investors.For sound and orderly development of pension real estate in China,how to correctly recognize and evaluate risk factors emerging in the process of investing in pension real estate projects and timely prevent and evade risk losses are present problems urgent to solve.This paper firstly introduces related concepts and basic theories of pension real estate and defines the research category of this paper.Secondly,it conducts preliminary recognition to investment risks of pension real estate projects from the perspective of value chain.Accordingly,questionnaires on investment risks of pension real estate project are designed.It conducts factor analysis of eighty-four collected copies of effective questionnaires via SPSS22.It also selects nineteen risk factors with relatively great correlation among the recognized twenty-four influencing factors and then aggregates into five categories including policy risk,economic risk,market risk,technical risk and operation management risk.Based on this,it establishes evaluation index system for investment risks of pension real estate projects.Later,after summarizing some commonly-used risk evaluation methods,it combines features of investment risks of pension real estate projects and establishes risk evaluation model via ANP and grey cluster method.Also,it establishes corresponding decision-making standards according to evaluation results and from the perspective of investors,puts forward specific risk precaution and countermeasures to reduce investment risks.Finally,take M project as research object,it conducts empirical analysis to verify whether the model established is adaptive.The results show that this model is of strong operability and can be as effective tool for investment risk evaluation of pension real estate project.Also,the model can provide as reference for investment decision-making and risk management in the pension real estate projects.