Analysis Of Risk Sharing Mechanism Of PPP Projects Based On Stochastic Cooperative Game

In recent years,China has continuously explored the PPP model and had accumulated some experience in this field,but there is still no consensus on how to identify PPP project risks,assess risks and respond to risks.In general,social capital involved in the PPP project when the project has identified the implementation plan.At this time,the risk of most PPP projects has been pre-allocated from the government's own perspective and social capital is relatively passive in the risk allocation.This will not only reduce the enthusiasm of the private sector,but also reduce the efficiency of risk allocation,resulting in unreasonable risk sharing or even affect the success of the entire project.Therefore,a reasonable risk-sharing is a very important part of the implementation of PPP projects.This paper makes an in-depth study on the risk-sharing model of PPP project.First of all,this paper summarizes the research frame and the latest progress of PPP through introducing its concept,risk management,risk sharing.Besides,we use the literature and Delphi method to identify the risks that may occur in the project and dividing the risk into two categories.The first category is for some parties alone to bear the risk,the second for multi sharing risk.Then,a more common risk-sharing model based on Shapley value correction is constructed by using analytic hierarchy process(AHP).The subjective intention of this kind of sharing method is strong.Then,the risk sharing model based on stochastic cooperative game is constructed,and the proportion of risk sharing is calculated according to Shapley value theory and stochastic cooperative game theory.Finally,the risk sharing model of the road traffic PPP project of S city is validated.Based on the experience of existing scholars,this paper has carried on the risk sharing research to the PPP project,and applied the more objective stochastic cooperative game model to change the traditional way to rely on expert subjective understanding way,enriched the project risk sharing theory.It may provide some reference for risk sharing in actual operation.