Research On The Evolution And Evaluation Of Endogenous Risk In The Upgrading Of Traditional Industry Cluster

Industrial cluster is an important source of regional competitiveness and also an important carrier of local government to promote regional economic growth.In the initial stages for reform and opening-up,the industrial clusters such as Guangdong "professional town" and Zhejiang "massive economy" sprang up,which became an important fulcrum for leveraging domestic economic growth and modernization.But in recent years,with the rise of the domestic pressure on resources and the environment,rising labor costs and the increasingly fierce international competition,accelerating the upgrading of industrial clusters has become the consensus of traditional economic managers and theory researchers.But the process in upgrading of traditional industrial clusters actually exists risk,in which endogenous risk plays a decisive role,so the task of this thesis was put forward.Based on the endogenous risk in the upgrading of traditional industrial cluster as the main line,firstly it discussed the background of this study.And then after carding opinions of related scholars,it introduced the definition of related concepts,mainly from traditonal industry cluster,the upgrading of traditional industrial cluster,the concept of endogenous risk in upgrading of the traditional industry cluster,classification of endogenous risk and mechanism of action about endogenous risk in upgrading of the traditional industry cluster,which laid the foundation for the following analysis.Then,the evolution mechanism was analyzed from three perspectives of enterprise,government and industry association,in which evolutionary game and experiments were done to analyze the relationship between cost and income based on different actions strategies.The participation of government,enterprises and trade associations will have different effects on the endogenous risk in the upgrading of traditional industrial clusters.In addition,according to the classification and evolution mechanism of endogenous riskin in upgrading of traditional industrial cluster,which contains economic risk,innovation risk,lock risk,ecological risk and structural risk,the evaluation system was built to analyze endogenous risk in upgrading of the traditional industry cluster.Then taking Chinesetypical textile industry clusters as the symbol of traditonal industry cluster(Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Fujian,Guangdong,Shandong,Henan and Hubei),the endogenous risk was assessed by evaluation and analysis both from segments of risk and total endogenous risk.And it concluded that Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Guangdong,Shandong and Henan textile industry cluster in the endogenous risk level is higher,while Fujian and Hubei textile industry cluster in the endogenous risk level is low,which reflects that endogenous risk distribution in upgrading of Chinese typical Textile Industrial Cluster is in an unbalanced state.Finally,based on the results of endogenous risk assessment,the suggestions were putford to prevent endogenous risk in upgrading of traditional industrial clusters from the angle of enterprise,government and industry association.