| Labor migration and agricultural policy subsidy are important aspects of agricultural reforms in rural areas.This study was conducted based on the theory of new economic migration of labor and agricultural subsidy policy.We examined the effects of labor migration and agricultural subsidy on the livelihood of farmers in the north,central and south areas of eastern Gansu loess plateau.The northern parts of eastern Gansu loess plateau were mostly slope lands with low temperature and rainfall,the southern parts were mostly plains with high temperature and rainfall,the central parts were river valley with moderate temperature and rainfall.The main results are as follows:(1)The increase of one migrant labor reduced grain crops in central-south by 0.0342 ha and increased in the north by 0.0543 ha,while the cash crops increased by 0.0633 ha in the south(P<0.05).Similarly,the increase of one migrant labor reduced the input for grain crops by 214 yuan in the south,for cash crops increased by 725 yuan,and the total input increased by 935 yuan(P<0.05).The total income from southern cash crops and total cropping systems increased by 1636 and 1489 respectively(P<0.05).Remittances increase of 5000 yuan reduced grain crops by 0.0253 ha in the central-south region,increased by 0.076 ha in the north,the forage crops in north increased by 0.0217ha(P<0.05),and the cash crops in the south increased by 0.0101ha(P<0.05).Remittances increase of 5000 yuan increased the income of cash crops in the south by 576 yuan(P<0.05).The Agriculture Support Protection(ASP)subsidy increase of one thousand yuan increased the grain crop by 0.133 ha and increased the input by 833 yuan in the north,decreased by 142 yuan in central grain crops,increased by 1112 yuan in total crop input,reduced by 2265 yuan in grain crops income,the total income in the north increased significantly by 86 yuan(P<0.05).(2)Migrant labor and remittances increased pig and sheep units by 0.776 and 1.039(P<0.05),respectively.When the remittances increased,the input for sheep reduced by 33 yuan while the input for pigs increased by 31 yuan,the total input for livestock system increased by 12.8 yuan(P<0.05),the income from sheep reduced by 178 yuan,the income from pig increased by 334 yuan,the total income from livestock and net income increased by 63 and 50.3 yuan(P<0.05).When the government increased the “subsidy for returning farmland to forests” by one thousand yuan,the number of livestock increased by sheep unit(P<0.05),the input of sheep,pig and livestock were all increased and the income of livestock increased(P<0.05).(3)The increase of one migrant labor increased the input for integrated systems in the north by 151 yuan,increased the income of eastern Gansu region by 721 yuan,increased the net income by 332 yuan.Remittances increase of 5000 yuan increased the input in the north by 120 yuan,income and net income by 1469 and 1021 yuan respectively.When the ASP subsidies increased one thousand yuan,the input in the north increased by 380 yuan,and the total income increased by 130 yuan(P<0.05).(4)The increase in number of migrant labor has resulted higher basic household consumption and the remittances increased the basic household consumption,social and total household consumption,and agricultural subsidy increased education,health care and total household consumption.Labor migration caused changes to general family structure.The families tend to be more core and younger.Migrant labor workers stay away from the family for long time and distance damage,liability,long separated husband and wife all lead to lower family satisfaction,greater probability of family breakdown.Increased family visits by migrant labors can prevent such negative effects.(5)The percentage of farmer change with input and income was fitted with Logistic equation.The input and income at the key point where farmer percentage account for 50.0% were 6060,1681,2629 yuan and 18250,4726,7800 yuan in the crop system of south,central and north respectively,in livestock system,input and income were 10025,2325,3621 yuan and 22000,6800,7200 yuan;in integrated crop-livestock system,input and income were 7695,2166,5003 yuan and 20800,6075,12015 yuan,this point was the key point of regional economic regulation. |
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