The Research Of RMB Regional Circulation In The Silk Road Economic Belt

The Silk Road economic belt policy proposed have provided a good policy platform and historical opportunity for economic development and cultural exchange between China and Central Asian countries.The Article expands and deepens the research fields and theoretical of monetary cooperation,and improves from qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis and empirical analysis.In a practical perspective,it explores RMB regionalization's path selection,necessity and feasibility,and provides a reliable policy recommendations for the yuan to become world currency.From the theory of Optimal Currency Areas,by using regression analysis,comparative analysis and induction analysis,the article makes a comprehensive analysis about RMB regionalization's path selection,necessity and feasibility on the Silk Road economic belt.At this stage,the trade between China and Central Asian countries is very closely,and with petroleum-based energy and manufactured goods bilateral import and export trade will continue to grow,while the dollar-denominated trade settlement will threat our country and Central Asian countries' economic and energy.Therefore,RMB-denominated oil-trade settlement between China and Kazakhstan oil can be used as the Silk Road economic belt RMB regional currency's breakthrough.The article makes use of benefit-cost analysis study the benefits and costs of the circulation of RMB regionalization,then RMB regionalization is to promote the Silk Road economic belt only way.China can obtain six major benefits:getting a huge Seigniorage income;reducing the settlement costs of foreign trade enterprises and the loss of foreign exchange risks;promotion of the foreign trade between each countries and enhancing Chinese economic level;being able to stabilize China's international balance of payments;upgrading ability to influence other countries' policies,enhancing the comprehensive national strength;and controlling the market price of key commodities and global pricing as a real economic power.Meanwhile,China need to pay the huge economic cost of "Triffin dilemma" and undertaking the responsibility to maintain he Silk Road economic belt with financial stability.Taken together,the circulation of RMB regionalization's benefits outweigh the costs,and it is an important measure conducive to the country's economic development,so the Silk Road economic belt circulation of RMB regionalization's policy is necessary.Both from qualitative and quantitative analysis to study the feasibility of RMB regionalization.With Central Asian countries and our country actively promoting to sign the trade cooperation agreement and the currency swap agreement,the bilateral flows between import and export trade is supporting and regional economic development becomes stable.Through the comparison and analysis of six countries' trade dependence,the article puts forward that foreign trade activities along the region is more frequently,which creates a relaxed external environment for trade and currency RMB in Silk Road economic belt.Since China's economy is strong,good development prospects,the market share of goods increases,financial conditions gradually open up and exchange rate policy is stable,the circulation of RMB in the Silk Road economic belt has good internal condition.Based on the Optimal Currency Area theory,by constructing OCA index system to analyze four factors,that influences the bilateral exchange rate volatility between China and Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan in 2005--2013,and to give a conclusion that national scale and differences in trade structure is the main factors to determine the monetary cooperation costs among countries.The more diversified a country's trade structure is and the biger the country,the lower the monetary cooperation overall costs are,so it is easier to process the monetary cooperation between each countries and confirms that the RMB can be used as a single currency in Silk Road economic belt currency area.Finally,the article from the external and internal environment puts forward the policy recommendations for the Silk Road economic belt circulation of RMB regionalization.However,due to the large data query difficulty,this article only chooses four countries' data instead of the Five Central Asian countries' data as representative.Then the results may be biased.And policy recommendations is the idea of the author himself,is not perfect,it needs to be the test of practice.