| Cotton is traditional industrial crop and significant strategic material,as its production has vital impact on development of textile industry,social employment,export for earning foreign exchange and economic development.However,facing with environmental challenges from domestic and overseas,farmers are unwilling to plant cotton anymore and the planting area decreased sharply,especially for the traditional cotton planting province,like Shandong province,with superior natural conditions,well developed textile industry,advanced equipment,huge cotton consumer market and experienced farmers.Yet planting area decreased 51.3% from 2004 to 2015,additionally,this situation gets worse and worse,finally yield being reduced.Sliding duties has been conducted since 2014,but imposing restriction on import of raw cotton to promote consuming domestic cotton will break down the supply balance of raw cotton and influence the sound development of cotton industry.Therefore,this thesis is based on studying factors that affect farmers' decision-making,grasping farmers' response accurately,and providing some suggestion.Solution on problems of cutting cotton for grain and abandoning cotton field is of great importance to maintain cotton planting area and ensure production of raw cotton,since costs structure being optimized,costs of production being decreased,planting efficiency being improved,profit for farmers being increased and cotton planting enthusiasm being improved.Studying on factors affected the adjustment of cotton planting area,forecasting plant area,adjusting import quotas,optimizing stockpiling policy and guaranteeing the stability of cotton price will make sure the healthy development of cotton industry.This thesis is based on survey of Shandong Province and directed by related theory(like the limited rational agent),with the combination of quantitative and qualitative,theory and practice,statistics and econometrics.Firstly,This thesis analyzes the development status,advantage and challenges;secondly,in terms of the costs of profit,this thesis researches farmers' planting tendency;thirdly,this thesis establishes C-D functions according to the production costs in 2015,and researches farmers' costs input and its reason based on elasticity of input and output;finally,in terms of resource condition,economic benefits,opportunity cost and national policy,this thesis studies on factors that influence planting area by econometric model Nerlove.The following results were found,firstly,the main reasons for abandoning cotton planting are higher costs,lower profits,complicated agronomy practice,high cost of land and low fluxion rate of land;high total costs for planting cotton prompt farmers to plant cereal but cotton;additionally,considering natural resources,family and cropping pattern,they focus on cotton planting.Secondly,in terms of costs of production,The sum of the elasticity coefficient of each factor of production input is 0.92 less than 1.like chemical fertilizer influences yield by 0.3636;while there is no significant but negative effect on yield by labor cost.Thirdly,the previous elastic coefficient 0.67 of planting area and the supply elastic coefficient-1.422 of non-farm employment are the major cause for farmers' adjusting planting area;moreover,if costs of planting cotton increase 15%,the planting area will reduce 0.59%;in addition,price of cotton can influence the fluctuation of planting area by 0.4 in short-terms and 1.22 in long-terms.According to the above results and current trends of agriculture,related policy proposals were put forward. |
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