The Study Of The RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations Impacton China' Agricultural Products Import And Export Trade

Under the condition of globalized market economy,the development of agriculture has been moving towards international,and China has welcomed the new of agricultural trade.The exchange rate plays an important role in international trade and it plays an important decisive role in the internationalization of China's agriculture,especially in China's agricultural products import and export trade.Therefore,China should increase the research on the RMB exchange rate.In 2005,China implemented a new reform mechanism for the RMB exchange rate,in the market supply and demand conditions,while a basket of money to adjust the RMB exchange rate,it is a floating exchange rate system,and can be effectively managed.In the macro perspective,the RMB exchange rate fluctuations affect the whole society and economic development,price level changes,inflation and the formulation of national policies;At the micro perspective,exchange rate volatility will bring trade risk and capital interest pressure to small and medium-sized agricultural products.As the world's traditional agricultural development is very strong country,we should attach great importance to this issue about the RMB exchange rate fluctuations is how to affect China's agricultural products import and export trade.This paper through the exposition of the basic theoretical knowledge of international trade and the mechanism of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the import and export trade of the agricultural products.First of all,the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on China's agricultural import and export trade analysis,from the overall aspect to determine the correlation between the two;Secondly,it analyzes the problems brought by the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate to China's agricultural products trade,and then quantitatively analyzes and explores the long-term relationship between the two..It chooses the RMB exchange rate and the import and export data of agricultural products in the past two decades.First,the model is constructed.Secondly,the unit root test and the Granger causality test are carried out.Finally,the cointegration test is used to estimate the variables Before the coefficient,and then come to the model results.In the empirical part,in addition to the exchange rate,and then add America GDP and our agricultural PPI and agricultural product trade opening and other related variables to study,in order to exclude as many factors as possible,making the empirical conclusion more reliable.The results show thatthere is a long-term cointegration relationship between RMB exchange rate and China's agricultural export trade.It can be seen that the study of the RMB exchange rate fluctuation and the relationship between China's agricultural products import and export trade is not only conducive to improving China's exchange rate system,but also to provide reference for the formulation of our policy,while also avoiding exchange rate risk.Therefore,China should from the international market economy and the basic situation of China's internal situation,from a macro point of view timely adjustment of the RMB exchange rate,to expand exchange rate volatility;develop relevant policies to maintain agricultural comprehensive production capacity,improve the efficiency of agricultural products;focus on agricultural brand cultivation and marketing,develop China's agricultural products international market.