Analysis Of The Impact Of The RMB Exchange Rate Changes On China’s Trade Balance

Since our country executes the RMB exchange rate system reform, the RMB exchange rate in China has been present a gradually rising, but our country’s international trade balance has been present surplus of the form, and the trade balance has also been shown a growing trend. Therefore,the RMB exchange rate on China’s balance of trade study is important, the study of it is not only of theoretical significance and also has practical significance. Based on the existing literature research, and on the basis of the first calculated in China in July2009to December2011our country every month of the Marshall lerner conditions value, and that the China’s export demand price elasticity and import demand price elasticity is far greater than the sum of the conditions of the Marshall lerner critical value1, in this time period that China is to meet Marshall lerner conditions, according to the traditional theory of international trade balance by the appreciation of the renminbi can inhibit our country’s trade surplus. And then we discussed our country RMB exchange rate and the actual and effective our trade balance relationship, first of all we get to our data ADF stationarity test, and draw the conclusion that the data is a steps stable, that we can make a co-integration analysis. And then we to actual and effective exchange rate and China’s trade balance between regression analysis, and then tested the income of a residual steadiness, finally concluded that residual item is smooth, and concluded that the country’s actual and effective exchange rate and China’s trade balance a cointegrating relationship between the conclusion,and the real effective exchange of RMB is not the only factors which influence the trade balance.