Research On The Risk Recognition And Evaluation Of Coal Supply Chain Based On CSCOR-RS

At present,China’s coal industry has been in the state of recession,many.problems have aroused such as the overcapacity of raw coal,the excessive imports of coal and the serious backlog of coal inventory.There are many factors that affect the safety of China’s coal supply chain,but how to find the main reasons for the safety problems of the coal supply chain?And how to evaluate the risk level of the coal supply chain?These problems have become the focus and difficulty for current researchers.In this paper,the risk of coal supply chain was selected as the research object.Coal supply chain operation reference model-CSCOR was designed based on the supply chain operation reference model and the theory of risk management,supply chain risk management and coal supply chain risk management.After three rounds of Delphi method,a list of 43 safety factors affecting the coal supply chain was obtained.By using the rough set theory,the 43 indexes were reduced to 20,then the risk evaluation index system of coal supply chain which was composed of 7 first level indexes and 20 second level indexes was constructed.With the help of questionnaire data,the importance and the weights of each index were determined by the rough set theory.Ten samples were radomly selected in existing data for the emperical study,then the comprehensive evaluation result of coal supply chain risk was obtained based on the test of the 10 research samples.The results show that the coal supply chain risk comprehensive risk index is 3.7967,indicating the 20 risk index has a great influence on the coal supply chain security and the evaluation index system is practical and scientific.In the 7 parts of the coal supply chain operations,the highest weight of them is the storage link,the weight of this link is 0.2005,which shows that the risk problems are most likely to occur in it,followed by the mining link,the transportation link,the sales link,the processing link,the cooperation link and the operation link,the weights of them are 0.1829,0.1548,0.1544,0.126,0.0912,0.0903.The lack of strategic plan,the uncontrolled water level of the port,the change of energy policy,the improper operation of the staff and the substandard of the coal inventory condition are the top five indicators influencing supply chain security by the comparison of the weights of 20 second level indicators,the weights of them are 0.0688,0.064,0.0628,0.0626,0.0584.The results of this study has an important significance in helping the coal supply chain risk managers to pay more attention to the key risks and formulate reasonable safety management strategy to realize the essential safety of Chinese coal supply chain.