Research Of Trade Dependence Of Zhe Jiang Province

The foreign trade degree of dependence refers to the proportion of foreign trade volume to the gross national product(GDP)of a specific country in a certain period of time,which is an important indicator to measure a country's economy dependent on external market.With the rapid growth of Zhejiang' foreign trade volume in recent years,the Trade Dependence of Zhejiang province calculated by traditional method keep increasing.The domestic economists also express their great concern about this trend and they point at Zhejiang's economy is highly dependent on international market according to their research.However,the truth was quite different.The Trade Dependence calculated by traditional method is not able to precisely evaluate the contribution and effect of Zhejiang's foreign trade to the economic growth.Based on input-output analysis and the definition,influence factors of Trade Dependence,this article adopts an amendatory calculation method and foreign trade data of Zhejiang province from 1990-2015,by using economic activity instead of gross national product(GDP),figures out the real Trade Dependence of Zhejiang province,further more builds empirical analysis model to demonstrate the influence factors of Zhejiang's Trade Dependence and manifest the relationship between the amendatory Trade Dependence and Zhejiang's GDP.By the re-calculation and empirical analysis of the Trade Dependence of Zhejiang province,the following conclusions are made: the real Trade Dependence of Zhejiang province is much less than the nominal Trade Dependence,therefore the economic growth of Zhejiang province is not highly dependent on international market;the Trade Dependence of Zhejiang province increases with RMB depreciation,industrial output value and FDI rising along with the reduction of the Zhejiang's economic scale;the growth of real Trade Dependence effectively stimulates the development of Zhejiang's economy.Finally,the thesis puts forward a number of recommendations and policies for how to promote the development of Zhejiang's foreign trade.