| Since the reform of the housing system in 1998, China’s economy has been developing. Real estate price rose fast before 2014, which has become a pillar industry of China’s national economy. Real estate industry has played a pivotal role in promoting China’s economic growth. But as a necessity of residents, fast rising of real estate price has become the focus of people’s attention. Government has been taking appropriate measures to regulate real estate price. Real estate price has dropped since 2014. Adjustment of real estate market dragged down the growth of domestic demand. Under the pressure of the economic downturn, recent real estate control policy is presented gradually relaxed posture.Real estate industry as a capital-intensive industry needs to invest a lot of money. Bank real estate credit is a main source of funds of real estate market. Real estate companies need bank real estate credit to develop housing; individuals need it to purchase housing also. By observing the relationship between bank real estate credit and real estate price, we can find synchronization between them. Then, how is the exact relationship between these two? Whether there is causality? Whether we can adjust real estate price by the impact of bank real estate credit policy? When government adjust real estate price, it should adopt a "one size fits all" policy or take different approaches based on regional difference? With this series of questions, we study the effects of bank real estate credit on real estate price.Firstly, this paper reviews and summarizes the conclusions of relevant theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of bank real estate credit on real estate price. Then it analyzes the status of bank real estate credit and real estate market. On this basis, it analyzes theoretically the impact of bank real estate credit on real estate price, and from which to determine the required variables that empirical analysis need. In the empirical part, first step, it uses national data to analyze the influence of bank real estate credit on real estate price. The second step, using the panel data of 31 provinces to analyze, to identify their own influence coefficient, compares the difference between different regions. The conclusions of this paper include: there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between bank real estate credit and real estate price. Bank real estate credit has a positive impact on real estate price. Bank real estate credit is the granger cause of real estate price, but real estate price isn’t the granger cause of bank real estate credit. There is time lag when bank real estate credit affect real estate price. The influence of lagged real estate price and lagged bank credit on real estate price is positive. The influence of lagged lending rate and lagged new construction area on real estate price is negative. Due to the different levels of economic development, financial development and local government executive power in different regions, leading to demand for real estate loan is also different, resulting in the degree of influence shows a larger difference in 31 provinces.Based on the results of theoretical analysis and empirical testing, combined with the current development of China’s bank real estate credit and real estate market, the article puts forward some policy recommendations respectively for real estate companies, government and bank. I hope conclusions of this paper can contribute to this field of research. |
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