| The real estate industry belongs to the capital- intensive industries. From real estate develop to sale, every link needs a lot of financial support. Under the financial system dominated by banks, credit of commercial banks has become the main financing cha nnel both of the real estate market supply and demand. Therefore, there is a close relationship between the commercial bank credit and the real estate market. The real estate market to a large extent influenced by bank credit expansion and contraction. At the same time, the fluctuation of real estate price will also affect the bank credit scale, the credit structure and credit risk. In recent years, C hina’s real estate market situation has changed. The volume, investment growth and prices of real estate begin to weaken. Most of the second- and third-tier cities’ housing prices have fallen significantly. Based on the background, research the influence of the real estate price fluctuation to our country commercial bank credit risk has certain theoretical and practical significance.This paper first analyze our country real estate price fluctuations and the bank real estate credit conditions over the years. And mainly selects commercial house average sales price and its growth rate, Guo Fang boom index, the real estate loan balances, the proportion of real estate loans to total bank loans, the proportion of real estate investment funds from domestic loans, non-performing real estate loans balance and ratio as measure indicators. Then, on the basis of the Japanese bubble economy and the US subprime loans crisis analysis, analyze the impact mechanism of the real estate price fluctuations on the bank credit risk, including real estate credit scale, bank credit structure and credit quality. In the end, the paper sums up five main factors that affect the bank credit risk: the real estate price, bank real estate credit scale, the real estate enterprise financial situation, the commercial bank management situation and the macro environment and builds the empirical model. Selects indexes from the above five aspects and data from 2003 to 2013, with 16 listed commercial banks in China as the research object. Use the method of factor analysis and panel data model to research the influence of real estate price fluctuation on our country commercial bank credit risk. The empirical results show that bank s non-performing loan ratio and house price fluctuation factor, macro environment factor, real estate credit scale factor, bank management circumstance factor are all have significant relationships. Among them, the Banks non-performing loan ratio has negative related with house price fluctuation factor and bank management circumstance factor. Banks non-performing loan ratio has positive related with macro environment factor and real estate credit scale factor.On the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper draws the following conclusions: first, the real estate price fluctuations have a significant reverse influence on commercial bank credit risk. Second, the influence degree of the real estate price fluctuations to bank credit risk has relevant with the bank credit structure. Third, the real estate price fluctuations have positive effects on real estate credit scale. |
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