A Study On The Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate Changes On The Foreign Trade Of Agricultural Products Of Henan Province

In recent years,Henan Province as a major agricultural province develop very quickly,study the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the Henan Province's agricultural product export trade in Henan province can optimize the export structure of agricultural products export trade enterprises,guide the enterprises better manage.International economic theory tells us that the devaluation of the currency of the exporting country will lead to the decline of the relative price of the goods in the exporting country.The impact of RMB exchange rate volatility on the export of agricultural products in Henan province would like the theoretical analysis of the classical theory with this problem in this paper from the import and export of goods,combined with the analysis of domestic and foreign scholars on the study of the use of foreign economic transmission mechanism and J curve effect of exchange rate factors,the impact of RMB exchange rate on Henan agricultural product export and empirical research combined with the related factors that influence the export trade of Henan Province in recent 15 years of data,through the establishment of long-term regression model,using cointegration test,unit root test and Grainger causality test,the empirical analysis draws the following conclusions:(1)the RMB exchange rate is not the main influencing factors the export of agricultural products in Henan Province,main factors that influence the export trade of Henan province is due to the competition of agricultural products in Henan Province Rise in force,resulting in the expansion of market size.The empirical test shows that the rise of 1% of the dominant comparative advantage index will lead to an increase of Henan agricultural exports by up to 1.231%.(2)the RMB exchange rate is positively correlated with the export of major agricultural products in Henan Province,but its effect is not as obvious as the market size.(3)through empirical analysis,it is found that the appreciation of RMB will cause the average export of fruits and vegetables to fall by 0.545%,while that of the comparative advantage index will increase by about 1%,which will increase the export of fruit and vegetable products by up to 0.789%.(4)RMB appreciation of 1%,will lead to an average decline in the export of meat products by 0.612%,the dominant comparative advantage index rose by up to 1% per cent,will lead to an average rise in meat exports of $1.021%.(5)RMB appreciation of each of the 1%,will cause a decline in the average export of fungi products by 0.712%,the dominant comparative advantage index increased by more than 1%,will cause the export of fungi products increased by 2.131%.In order to explain the reason why the impact of exchange rate changes on the export of agricultural products in Henan province is not significant,then using the exchange rate is not completely transmission effect of RMB to carry on the analysis,found the transfer coefficient of the RMB exchange rate is 0.428,the RMB exchange rate is not entirely on the price transfer,it also explains why the impact of the RMB exchange rate on export of agricultural products of Henan,no significant specific reasons.