Scene Simulation Of Land Use Change And Spatial Control In Group City

At present,China is in the medium-term development stage of the process of urbanization.Rapid urbanization has brought rapid economic development,but at the same time a series of social and environmental problems in the process of urbanization have been appeared,such as urban population growth too fast,Lack of infrastructure,ecological damage,serious pollution and so on.Under the background of the new urbanization,the mathematical model and the geo-process space-time simulation technology are used to simulate the future land use change and to determine the scale of the future urban expansion.The quantitative simulation results can be used as the basis of urban spatial control which can improve the urban spatial layout Scientific,to enhance the quality of land use and has a certain theoretical significance.Based on the remote sensing image data of 2005 and 2015,this paper takes the Zibo municipal area as the research area.Land use data for the study area in 2005 and 2015 were obtained by remote sensing image interpretation.On this basis,Affecting the natural environment factors and location factors of land use change in Zibo municipal area.In the SPSS software,Logistic regression analysis was carried out on the land use types in 2005 based on different scales,and found the best scale of land use change simulation in the study area by ROC curve test.Secondly,based on the land use data in 2005,simulated the spatial pattern of land use in 2015.Used the simulation result to compared with the real land use map in 2015 to test the accuracy of model simulation.In view of the characteristics of Zibo City,the CLUE-S model was used to simulate the future land use change of Zibo City.Based on the land use data in 2015 and the characteristics of urban distribution in Zibo City,two future development scenarios of "central prominence" and "balanced development" are constructed,and simulated.the land use Spatial pattern of Zibo city area in 2025 years.Finally,the paper puts forward the control measures of urban space in Zibo and puts forward the spatial control scheme of Zibo city expansion with reference to the quantitative simulation results.To provide a reference for Zibo City to optimize the allocation of land resources,formulating urban planning,providing reference for future research on land use in other similar areas.The main results of this study are as follows:(1)Obtain the land use map for the corresponding year based on the remote sensing images in 2005 and 2015 by supervising classification and unsupervised classification.(2)The driving factors of land use change in Zibo city area were determined by elevation,slope,aspect,distance factor and so on.Logistic regression analysis was carried out on the driving factors of land use change in Zibo city area by different spatial scales.Through the ROC curve test to determine the Zibo City area land use change simulation of the best scale of 150 m * 150 m.(3)The spatial pattern of land use in Zibo City area in 2015 was simulated.Based on the actual land use data of Zibo City in 2015,and used The Kappa coefficient to test the simulation results.The Kappa coefficient is 0.91,which indicates that the CLUE-S model has good applicability in the land use change simulation of Zibo City under the spatial scale of 150 m * 150 m.(4)This paper constructs two urban development scenarios,such as "central highlight" and "balanced development",and simulates the spatial pattern of land use in Zibo city area in 2025 under this two development scenarios.The simulation results show that there is a large difference in the spatial pattern of land use under different simulation scenarios.The land use of cultivated land and woodland is different,urban construction land area is increasing and other land is decreasing.In the "central highlight" scenario,Zhangdian District as the main city,urban construction land area to further expand the rural residential areas and arable land reduction;in the "balanced development" scenario,Zibo City,five urban urban construction land area increased,Mainly through the occupation of arable land and the surrounding rural settlements to achieve.(5)According to the characteristics of the group city of Zibo and simulation results,the paper puts forward the specific spatial control scheme of Zibo city: delimitated the urban development boundary by the scope of construction land in the reference model simulation project.Zhangdian District as the core of the development area,takes the way of the development of the new area is combined with the transformation of the old city and connotation promotion combined with moderate extension.At the same time through the radioactive corridors,communication with other urban areas and complementary advantages;The other four areas as the focus of the development of regional,urban development orientation for the Zhangdian District of the satellite city,the depth of mining their own advantages and connotations,in accordance with the center interaction,level harmony,complementary features,space expansion principles,Mutual promotion and common development of urban groups.For the future development of Zibo City,the rational optimization of land resources allocation,the development of urban planning to provide reference.(6)Put forward the measures of Zibo urban space control: First tap the potential of urban stock land,saving intensive use of stock land;The second is to promote the implementation of multi-regulation,to build a special space control system;third is to delimit the boundaries of urban development to ensure the orderly development of the city;Fourth,vigorously promote the green urbanization,delineation of urban ecological red line;Fifth,the demolition of permanent basic farmland,strict implementation of arable land balance system.(7)Using mathematical model and geo-process space-time simulation technology to simulate the trend and scope of urban expansion,reasonably determine the scale of future urban expansion,provide a reference for the future optimization of urban spatial pattern in Zibo city area,scientifically define the urban development boundary and formulate urban planning.