Research On Government's Reasonable Guarantee Decision-making In Urban Rail Transit PPP Project

After more than ten years rapid development of China,people's living standards are getting higher and higher,at the same time,urban congestion is also becoming more and more serious.Because the existing urban transport system is hard to meet the public demand of public transport,urban rail transit gains the local government's favor because of its large capacity,fast speed,punctuality and so on.From the perspective of the world,to give priority to the development of public transport including urban rail transit in order to promote the healthy development of urban and sustainable development has become a consensus.It has a large investment,long payback period,strong public welfare,weak profitability and other distinctive features.Therefore,government departments choose to cooperate with social capital in a model of PPP to build urban rail transit,which not only alleviate the government's financial pressure but also promote the development of urban public transport system.In the urban rail transit PPP project,the government often in the form of risk guarantees to ensure that the project benefits,sharing the project risk.From the history of government guarantees,as early as the early 19 th century,Europe and the United States began to use government guarantees to promote the development of infrastructure,and with the government to promote the use of risk guarantees,but also really solve the world governments want to build The infrastructure is underfunded.The government attracts social capital in the form of risk-taking to invest in infrastructure without paying for immediate costs,but then there are many projects where government departments have to pay huge sums for their guarantees.Governments are aware that risk guarantees are not once and for all.The government's guarantee of project risk is a contingent liability,although it will not be reflected in the government's budget,but it is like a time bomb,it is likely in the future one day on the government finance a huge impact.Therefore,the government should carefully assess the value of the guarantee before making a risk-takingdecision to reduce or avoid its adverse effects on government finances.In the context of PPP,the social capital generally demands the government to the risk guarantee,this paper discusses how to quantify the value of government risk guarantee,how the PPP project risk is distributed between the government department and the private sector,and the different levels of government risk guarantee Assessment,trying to analyze the government in the urban rail transit PPP project reasonable risk guarantee decision.This paper argues that a reasonable government guarantee decision should provide guarantee for the project risk at the lowest cost when safeguarding the project yield and controlling the risk to a certain extent.So the city rail transit PPP project in the government's best level of security as the goal,the article is divided into the following chapters.The first chapter is the introduction,mainly introduces the background of the article,research significance and domestic and foreign research on the status of government guarantees.The second chapter is the theoretical basis.Through the elaboration of the theory of public goods and the theory of project differentiation,the author draws the necessity of the government to share the risk of the urban rail transit PPP project,and applies the whole life cycle theory to the risk identification and risk sharing of the PPP project of urban rail transit,According to the real option theory to establish the government guarantee the valuation model.The third chapter mainly discusses the necessity of value evaluation of government risk guarantee in PPP project,summarizes the historical experience of government risk guarantee applied to infrastructure construction and analyzes the government guarantee decision by two factors of individual cognitive impairment and interest group game The paper analyzes the importance of quantifying the value of government guarantee for the government to make reasonable guarantee decision.The fourth chapter is the construction of the reasonable guarantee decision model of the government.Firstly,the potential risks of PPP projects in urban rail transit are identified based on the risk checklist of Ke Yongjian,Wang Shouqing and Chen Bingquan.Based on the identified risks,The risk allocation between the private sector,and the risk that the government departments should bear in the urban rail transit PPPproject.And then builds the government risk guarantee valuation model through the real option idea,constructs the government reasonable guarantee decision model based on the valuation model,and finally introduces the Monte Carlo calculation method adopted in this paper.In the fifth chapter,the case of J-city subway line 4 is Beijing.Using the government's reasonable guarantee decision model constructed by the previous chapter,Monte Carlo simulation is used to show the calculation of government guarantee valuation and finally,The best guarantee decision.The sixth chapter is the conclusion and policy suggestion.Through the PPP project in urban rail transit,the government reasonable guarantee decision model provides the reference for the government in PPP practice and puts forward some suggestions to reduce the financial impact of the government.