A Study On The NET Barter Terms Of Trade Of China

The study on the theory of the net barter terms of trade is one of the key issues in the field of trade research,especially in the past half century.The deterioration of the net barter terms of trade in developing countries has caused the immiserizing growth problem,which makes the issue on net barter terms of trade become popular.So,in-depth analysis of the impact of various factors on the net barter terms of trade has become a hot issue for many countries' scholars.Based on the exchange rate,the elasticity of the demand for import and export commodities,the supply elasticity,we try to study the net barter terms of trade.The current research shows that the impact of the exchange rate on the net barter terms of trade varys from different econometric analysis methods.The problem is not yet form a unified conclusion.Therefore,it is particularly necessary to check the impact of the exchange rate on the net barter terms of trade whether be affected by the price elasticity of demand and the price elasticity of supply.With the standard reduced-form partial-equi librium model and Cointegration Test,we can get the import and export commodities' price elasticity of demand and supply,and analyze their changes.Next,we use unit root test and co-integration test to analyze the effect of nominal exchange rate and real effective exchange rate on the net barter terms of trade.Through co-integration test and Granger test,we can find out whether the impact of the exchange rate on the net barter terms of trade is affected by import and export products' the price elasticity of demand and supply.The empirical results show that the impact of exchange rate in the net barter terms of trade has a litter relationship with import and export goods' price elasticity of demand and supply,and the empirical result is difference with the model of elastic.Finally,according to the empirical results,combined with the development of China's foreign trade,we put forward feasible suggestions and policy measures.This thesis is arranged as follows:Chapter One elaborates the related question and introduces the theoretical and practical significance of this subject,so that we can confirm the research object of the dissertation,then gives the research methods,summarizes innovative points and the inadequacies of the dissertation.Chapter Two overviews the theories of the terms of trade.The research focuses on the net barter terms of trade,mainly studies the changes of the net barter terms of trade,the main factors that affect the net barter terms of trade,and the economic impact of the terms of trade.From current results,the influence factors of the net barter terms of trade are complex,and the economic impact of the net barter terms of trade is also complicated.Although some scholars have studied the net barter terms of trade from the perspective of exchange rate,no one check whether the price elasticity of demand and supply have something to do with impact of the exchange rate on the net barter terms of trade.Chapter Three introduces and analyzes the change of the net barter terms of trade of China,RMB nominal exchange rate,RMB real exchange rate,inflation and M2.Chapter Four introduces the related theories and the partial equilibrium model of import and export.First of all,the price elasticity of supply and demand of import and export products has play an important role in the impact of the exchange rate on the net barter terms of trade in the traditional theoretical model.Secondly,in the partial equilibrium model,we can get the price elasticity of supply and demand by the dynamic OLS.Then,we analyze the influence of RMB nominal exchange rate and real exchange rate on the net barter terms of trade.We find that nominal exchange rate has no relationship with the net barter terms of trade,but there is a co integration relationship between the real exchange rate and the net barter terms of trade.In accordance with the RMB appreciation and depreciation,we test the impact of the real exchange rate in terms of trade.With empirical research,we find that the impact of real exchange rate in the net barter terms of trade is not affected by the import and export of products' price elasticity of supply and demand in the two time period.Chapter Five summarizes the conclusions and proposes the political suggestions.With empirical methods,it is confirmed that the impact of exchange rate in the net barter terms of trade has nothing to do with import and export goods' price elasticity of demand and supply.In addition,the real exchange rate has a little effect on the price terms of trade.According to import and export products' the price elasticity of supply and demand,this dissertation puts forward some suggestions to improve the competitiveness of export products and the net barter terms of trade.