A Study On China's Urban Housing Supply Elasticity

The purpose of this paper is to explore the rules and characteristics of the elasticity of urban housing supply in China,and to seek more reliable basis for the regulation of China's housing market from the perspective of housing supply side.The purpose of this research is to break down into four mutually progressive sub-goals:firstly,to establish the theoretical framework of housing supply elasticity;secondly,to find out the urban difference of Chinese housing supply elasticity by measuring the supply elasticity of Chinese housing;thirdly,to clarify the impact of China's housing supply elasticity on the housing market;fourthly,to reveal which factors influence the elasticity of housing supply in China.Since the housing material distribution in 1998,real estate market in China,although the development speed of it is faster,but there are still a lot of problems and contradictions,including total imbalances,structural imbalance,rapidly prices rising,and the problem such as overstock,which led to a series of macro-control policies.Although macro-control has played some role,the problems of real estate,especially housing development,are still outstanding.The regulation policies of the past,more of them are from the demand side.Compared with the demand side adjustment,the supply side adjustment is relatively slow,but its impact is more long-term and stable.Housing supply-side structural reforms have important impetus to build a long-standing mechanism to promote the healthy development of the housing market in our country,and the housing supply-side structural reforms and regulation inevitably involved in housing supply elasticity problem.Obviously,the system research of our country housing supply elasticity has important practical significance.This thesis is based on the actual needs of the supply-side structural reform and regulation of China's housing market.Housing supply elasticity means housing supply changes in response of housing price changes,which can be able to objectively reflect the running laws of housing market and fluctuation characteristics.Therefore,the research of housing supply elasticity can scientifically reveal the causes of the urban housing prices and housing price difference between cities,and is beneficial to explain the cause of the phenomenon of excess inventory each city.There is no doubt that the answer to these questions will help control housing market for the government to provide the scientific basis for further.The above research objectives are mainly realized through the following research:(1)Theoretical analysis of supply elasticity and housing supply elasticity.Firstly,the theory of supply elasticity is reviewed and summarized,and then the theory of elasticity of housing supply is further analyzed to provide theoretical support for empirical analysis.(2)Measure of elasticity of housing supply.Using 35 large and medium cities in China as samples,respectively calculate housing stock elasticity(distinguish between generalized and narrow housing stock elasticity)and housing incremental elasticity,which including the elasticity of the cities and the whole country.Then the measurement results are further analyzed from the perspective of time trend,land,property tax and demand.(3)The empirical analysis of housing supply elasticity influences housing market.This paper makes an empirical analysis from three aspects:the fluctuation of housing price,the overstock and the consumption subject.(4)Empirical analysis of the influencing factors of supply elasticity.It mainly verified the influence of land supply,interest rate,GDP per capita,population density,urban infrastructure construction and per capita disposable income on the elasticity of housing supply in different cities.In the empirical analysis,we mainly use the simple linear regression model,the hybrid method of least squares,panels fixed effects regression,random effects regression,GMM estimation and panel vector auto-regression model(PVAR),and other methods.The conclusion of this paper is:(1)China's urban housing incremental elasticity of supply and housing stock supply elasticity are 1.28 and 0.28 respectively(both are in inelastic sequence),and there are significant differences in housing supply elasticity level of the 35 large and medium cities.A comparative study on the elasticity of supply elasticity of housing and the elasticity of stock supply shows that the spatial difference between housing supply and future development in different cities in China is obvious.(2)The elasticity of housing increment supply can well explain the difference of price increase in 35 large and medium-sized cities.The empirical results show that the elasticity of housing supply has a significant negative effect on housing price growth.(3)Housing supply elasticity has the function of adjusting the excess inventory in the housing market.The smaller the supply elasticity of housing stock,the less likely it is to generate excess inventory.The greater the elasticity of housing stock supply,the more likely it will be to produce excess inventory.(4)The elasticity of housing supply is obviously affected by land supply,interest rate,per capital GDP,population density,urban infrastructure construction and per capital disposable income.The specific influencing factors are different due to the different elasticity levels of urban housing supply.(5)The tightening of land supply is an important reason for the decline of housing supply elasticity.(6)The elasticity of housing supply has certain guiding significance for the property tax collection policy.The above research conclusion shows that housing supply elasticity has a strong explanatory function and adjustment mechanism in housing market.It is not only in the theoretical logic of economics,but also in line with China's practical needs.We should improve the housing supply elasticity of our cities in a moderate way,and further deepen the regulation policy of the housing market.We should give full play to the different role of central government and city government.We should carefully carry out the property tax levy policy according to the characteristics of the elasticity of supply and demand elasticity.At the same time,we should further deepen the reform of the economic system so as to gradually resolve the contradictions in the development of the housing market,and guide the housing market into a healthy and orderly orbit.The main innovation points of this paper are mainly:firstly,the housing supply elasticity is classified according to the characteristics of housing.Secondly,from the Angle of the elasticity of supply,we try to analyze the differentiation of the housing market in our country and the contradiction between reality and concrete from the housing prices,excess inventory,property tax,and consumption subject conducted respectively.Thirdly,it extends the analysis scope of factors influencing the elasticity of housing supply.Fourthly,the use of housing supply elasticity index to China's land policy impact assessment.