Renminbi Revaluation To Our Country Agricultrual Product Export Trade Influence Research

The exchange rate, the rate of one nation's currency change into another nation's currency, shows the relationship of two nation's currency. It is an important comprehensive price indicator for international trade. Statistics show that, the exchange rate of RMB to U.S. dollar is 6.8268 on March 2, 2010, which is 21.2% higher than that of 8.2765 before currency reform on July 21. 2005.As China's sustained rapid economic growth for years, the outside world's demand for appreciation of the RMB is highly observed. Especially in recent years China's huge trade surplus, capital surplus and high foreign reserves, provided excuse for someone to attack the exchange rate of RMB. By the end of December 2009, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 2.399152 trillion U.S. dollars, gold reserves 33.89 million ounces, while the German Federal Statistical Office in 2009, according to trade statistics (preliminary) show that China's annual exports amounted to 12,016 million, catching up with Germany for the first time, ranking first in the world. Strong and long-term sustainability in China's export situation, coupled with huge foreign exchange and gold reserves, foreign exchange rate issue has become a major focus to restrict China's export trade. The academic discussion on appreciation of the RMB gradually warms up. Appreciation of RMB and appreciation space has also become a hot topic.Agricultural trade, which once brought huge economic benefits for us plays an important role in the history of our country's export trade for a long time. In twentieth,twenty-first century, agricultural exports have gradually become less important in export industry.As the producer of food and industrial raw materials, the development of agriculture has direct impact on people's quality of life and the supply of industrial products, restricting the economic growth rate of other industrial sectors. And more importantly, China still has the world's largest agricultural working population of the country. So it has great significance to study the export of agricultural product in terms of increasing farmers'income and building a harmonious society. The situation of appreciation of the RMB has existed since 2005, while exports of agricultural products remain steadily without strong support of policy. The export of some agricultural products even increased to our surprise. Will RMB appreciation finally has effect on the export of agricultural products? How dose the situation of economic retrograde going against law of price come up? Can the traditional trade theory give a full explanation? This article will analyze these problems deeply with the using of various situations.This article will review and summarize the study of appreciation of RMB and international trade theory and the theory of international trade balance. Through the analysis of actual data with the current status of agricultural export trade, it points out reasons for the increasing in agricultural exports in the context of appreciation of the RMB with the help of qualitative and quantitative analysis combined with theoretical empirical approach, to explain and verify. The article attempts to use the classic trade theory to explain the comparative advantages of China's agricultural exports and analyze the reasons that agricultural export growth and appreciation of the RMB run in the opposite direction. It uses Marshall - Lena J curve theory of the elastic theory to explain China's agricultural export trade status, and then make an empirical model and use actual economic data to test, with theoretical explanations based on the use of the RMB's nominal exchange rate and the overall exports of agricultural products.Finally, the paper will figure out that RMB appreciation will have a profound impact on China's agricultural exports, especially for general agricultural products. The exports of agricultural products (apart from the rigid strong life products) will decline after a short-term export growth because of RMB appreciation. It gives some political recommendations to guide future development of export of agricultural products with the analysis of the existing general agricultural exports potential problems in our current economic and political environment.