An Empirical Research On The Timing Type Of The Impact A High-speed Railway Have On The Housing Price Of The Cities Along It

Taking Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway as an example,through the construction of the "comparable city group",employing a difference in difference estimation method based on the idea of a "natural experiment",this paper measures the timing effect of high-speed railway for its introduction,construction and operation on the average price of the cities along the site exactly,and furthermore explores and studies the different dynamic change trends.It suggests that the influences of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway on the house price of the cities along the site is determined by the combination of three driving forces—they are the land price push-up effect,the competition effect among real estate investors both belonging to the supply side,and the demand-pull effect which belongs to the demand side.These three house price driving forces manifest different strength so as to form different comprehensive effects in different stages of the construction process of the high-speed railway.Taking Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway as an example,in the planning stage of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway,since there hadn’t been fierce competition between the new investors and the existing investors,and the consumers hadn’t form an eager purchase intention immediately,neither in terms of the average price of the commercial houses or residential houses,there was no significant effect of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway’s planning promulgation on the average price of the cities along the site.In the stage of the project construction,since the competition between the new investors and the existing investors was weak yet,the joint effect of the land price push-up effect beginning in the planning stage combined with demand-pull effect from new buyers occupied a dominant position,there was a significant positive promoting effect of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railways’ project construction on the average price of the cities along the site.Concretely speaking,under the complete control of the other factors,it shows that the average price of the commercial houses along the site of the cities rose by about 3.70% due to the construction of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway,and there was an about two-year postponement in terms of the positive house price driving force.In the operation stage of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway,since the competition between the new investors and the real estate investors is becoming increasingly fierce so that it had been stronger more than the joint effect which combined the land price push-up effect with the demand-pull effect accumulated from the first two periods,there was no significant positive promoting effect of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway’s operation on the average price of the cities along the site,but rather a significant inhibitory effect,regardless of the average price of commercial houses or residential houses.Concretely speaking,under the complete control of the other factors,it shows that the average price of the commercial houses along the site of the cities descended by about 3.81% due to the operation of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway,and there was an about one-year postponement in terms of the inhibitory house price driving force.