Research Of Influence Factors Of China's Economic Fluctuations

The two focuses on macroeconomic research are economic growth and economic fluctuation.After the reform and opening,China has made great achievements in the economy,but also has the problem of the economic fluctuation.At the same time,China's long-term dependence on aggregate demand management policies to stimulate economic growth,which also resulted in overcapacity and redundant construction and a series of issues.So,what is the source of China's economic fluctuations,how should the government take measures to make our economy more stable,and how should we balance the implementation of aggregate demand management policy and aggregate supply management policy? The answer to these questions,whether for the sustained and healthy development of China's economy or the improvement of people's living standards,have a very important significance.In addition,the macroeconomic research methods in recent years has made considerable progress and development.The early research on economic fluctuation mainly focused on the identification and classification of the business cycle,and most of the current economists' concerns are placed on the impact of exogenous shocks on economic fluctuations.The mainstream model of research on this problem in recent years is the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model.This paper is also in this theoretical background to study China's economic fluctuations.This paper intends to study the following problems: First,on the basis of previous studies,we construct the macroeconomic DSGE model of our country,and introduce the habit preferences,monopolistic competition and Taylor rule with interest rate smoothness and forward-looking behavior.The model incorporates six exogenous shocks and classifies the impact of supply shocks and demand shocks to study the impact of supply and demand shocks on major economic variables.Secondly,we use the macroeconomic time series data of our country to calibrate and estimate the parameters in the model.Then,through the empirical analysis of impulse response function,variance decomposition and historical decomposition,this paper studies the impact of exogenous shock on China's macro economy,identifies the driving factors of China's economic fluctuation,and analyzes the main sources of China's economic fluctuation.This paper presents the following policy recommendations based on the model results.First,the empirical analysis shows that the source of the fluctuation of each variable is mainly the supply shocks.As a result,the government should give adequate attention to supply management policies.In particular,the government should abandon the extensive investment policy in the previous stage and reduce the substantial demand for total demand.In terms of monetary policy,since the various variables will be affected by monetary policy,the central bank should be more prudent in the implementation of monetary policy.Be careful to avoid significant economic fluctuations due to policy factors.In the context of the Fed's rate hike,China should implement a prudent monetary policy,pay attention to prevent spillover effect caused by other countries' monetary policy,to avoid capital outflows and exchange rate fluctuations caused by loose monetary policy.Secondly,in terms of supply management policy,the government should increase investment,encourage technological innovation,and rely on technological progress to promote economic growth.In addition,the government should reduce the friction of the economy,improve market efficiency.Specifically,the government should strengthen the supervision of the monopoly industries,while speeding up the pace of decentralization in order to reduce the loss of marketing efficiency.Finally,the emphasis on supply management policy is not to abandon aggregate demand management,the government should take full advantage of a variety of macroeconomic policies to promote sustainable economic development and reduce economic fluctuations.