China’s Economic Fluctuations In The Exogenous Shocks

With the continuous development of modern computing methods and Bayesian statistical theory, DSGE models have become a new paradigm in one of the macro-econometric analysis, it is a set of economic fluctuations and economic policies. This model is widely used in foreign countries, while the domestic research in this area is also small.This paper is fully absorb and learn from domestic and foreign academia in the related areas, and carry out a systematic theoretical analysis and empirical test on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Firstly, this paper develops a New-Keynesian stochastic dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, and do the steady-state analysis and the log-linear, then calibrate parameters in the model, then get the theoretical impulse response function. Secondly, using seasonal macroeconomic data of China to estimate parameters with Bayesian method, then get the empirical impulse response function, and compare it to the theoretical impulse response function, found that the two are basically the same. Finally, receive the conclusion of the full test, the results show that:Positive technology shock and monetary supply shock have expansionary effects on economic, and make some outlook for the development of the DSGE model.The main contribution of this paper is the development of the model which can be used to analyze our country’s economic fluctuations.the model is based on the latest development of New-Keynesian macroeconomics, whose center is the stickiness of price and competitive monopoly.