Study On Cultivated Land Quantity Of Sichuan Province Based On Resources And Environment Carrying Capability

The problem of regional development restricted by shortage of resources and overload of environmental is a great challenge for China to enter the new period of industrialization,urbanization and agricultural modernization.The carrying capacity of resources and environment in the region is limited,so it is very important for the sustainable development of economy,society,resources and environment of regional to understand the current carrying capacity of the resources and environment,and to predict the carrying capability of the region.Based on the analysis of the present situation of the cultivated land and the carrying capacity of regional resources and environment in Sichuan Province,this study selected the grain supply,the number of resident population,the total water supply,sulfur dioxide emissions and other indexes,from the land resources,water resources and atmospheric environment.Forecast the population carrying capacity of resources and environment at 2020 in Sichuan Province and the 18 cities in it by using Grey System Model and ARIMA Model.From the results,we could find the obligatory target,which restricted the population carrying capacity,and finally calculated the cultivated land quantity in Sichuan province at 2020.According to the obligatory target,the paper put forward some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to protect and improve the quantity of cultivated land.The conclusions are as follows:(1)The forecast of cultivated land in Sichuan Province in 2020 would be 530.97×104 hm2.The status of resources and environmental carrying capacity would be: land resources>water resources>atmospheric environment.The carrying capacity of the atmospheric environment would be the lowest,and the bearing capacity would be critical,which meant that the atmospheric pollution of Sichuan would continue to increase in the future.The carrying capacity of land resources would be surplus,far more than the number of people in the region,which meant that the food supply in Sichuan Province would be very abundant in the future.The state of water resources carrying capacity would be critical,which meant that the supply of water resources in Sichuan in the future would be less than the demand.(2)Among the eighteen cities of Sichuan Province,there would be four cities which carrying capacity of land resources would be under the balance,four cities which carrying capacity of water resources would be under the balance,ten cities which carrying capacity of atmospheric environment would be under the balance.Atmospheric environment would still be the key factor restricting the size of the population of most cities in the future,and nearly 56% of the city's atmospheric environment carrying population would be overload,which need to be improved.Although the overall food supply in Sichuan Province would be very abundant,but some industrial cities such as Chengdu,Panzhihua and other cities would still be dependent on the food deployment and supply of the surrounding cities.Similarly,in the industrial water consumption in the industrial cities would be huge,where the water resources carrying population also exceeded the actual carrying capacity.Deyang and Guangyuan which status of the carrying capacity would be surplus could greatly improve the speed of economic development.The rest cities would have at least one pressure from resources and the environment.(3)From the perspective of the capacity of carrying capacity of resources and environment,this paper forecast the cultivated land quantity,and realizes the coupling of land,water,air and population.To force carrying population of the area lowest carrying elements as the number of regional actual population was to not only ensure the regional resources and environmental factors in the bearing range,but also ensure the regional resources and environment for sustainable economic development of the population.The prediction results were close to the Overall Planning of Land Use in Sichuan Province(2006-2020),and it provided the methodology for the study on the prediction of the quantity of cultivated land.