Evaluation Of Animal Husbandry Productivity And Development Potential Of Agricultural Areas In Northwest China

The Northwest China is rich in natural resources,which is the ideal area for the development of animal husbandry.In order to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure,promote the agricultural supply side of the structural reform and the "Silk Road economic zone" construction of the macro background,the state has repeatedly stressed optimize the structure of livestock and regional layout,to encourage the structure,transfer mode,and vigorously support the development of animal husbandry in the northwest region,therefore,China’s animal husbandry producing areas gradually moving to the northwest has become an inevitable trendBased on this,the paper studies the productivity level and the development potential of animal husbandry in northwest agricultural area.The purpose of this paper is to analyze how many animal products can be provided in the area of animal food consumption in the northwest agricultural region.Whether the northwest agricultural region can seize the animal husbandry "westbound northward" strategy opportunities,to achieve the transformation and upgrading of animal husbandry and leapfrog development.The results can provide scientific basis for national macroeconomic policy adjustment and regional development strategy formulationAccording to the requirements of the Chinese Academy of Engineering,"NorthwestChina" including to Shaanxi,Gansu,Qinghai,Ningxia,Xinjiang,Shanxi andin addition to the eastern four cities outside the Inner Mongolia region,including seven provinces.In this paper,in part of theagricultural region as the research object,through accessing to statistical yearbook and literatures,typical investigation.Using principal component analysis,Grey prediction GM(1,1)model,ARIMA time series model,study on evaluation of animal husbandry production and development potential of Northwest China.The results are as follows:1.During the 12 th Five-Year Plan period,the amount of livestock,cattle and sheep in the northwest agricultural area increased by 0.60%,2.11% and 3.88% respectively,reaching 12.046,8.927 and 6.551 million by 2015.But the agricultural feed supply and demand in an unbalanced statein Northwest China,which is shortage of feed shortages of 9.091 million tons,roughage shortage of 17.279 million tonsin 2015.2.During the 12 th Five-Year Plan period,the beef,pork,mutton and milk production in northwest agricultural areas increased by 2.56%,3.11%,3.08% and 0.69% respectively,reaching 632,000 tons,2.396 milliontons,9.866 million tons.In 2015,the agricultural products can meet the needs of the 80 million 215 thousand and 200 urban and rural residents in Northwest China.3.The sustainable development of animal husbandry in agricultural region of Northwest China from 2005 to 2014 was evaluated by using principal component analysis(PCA),and the trend was decreasing from 2006 to 2007,reaching the lowest value in 2007 and increasing year by year after 2007.The main factors affecting the overall level of local animal husbandry production were the grain output,the number of cattle and sheep,the output of pork and milk production.4.According to the statistics of animal husbandry production in agricultural region of Northwest China from 2001 to 2015,through the grey prediction GM(1,1)model and ARIMA time series model prediction.Results show:according to the development level of the past 15 years,the grain,beef,mutton,egg and milk production increased by 8.92%,19.7%,11.90%,8.89% and 9.71% respectively compared with 2015,its production potential is bigger.Pork production will decline,the rate of 12.82%.If the feed corn and perennial grass planting area(or yield)increased by 20% and cattle and sheep net meat rate and slaughter rate increased by 6%,the animal husbandry will achieve a balance between supply and demand of roughage in agricultural region of Northwest China in 2020.5.Based on the prediction results and optimization scheme,six suggestions are put forward:(1)Strengthen the input of animal husbandry production infrastructure;(2)Increase the investment in vocational education in rural area and popularization of Science;(3)To optimized breed structure,reduce the proportion of grain consuming livestock;(4)Improve the utilization rate of straw resources;(5)Expand the area of high quality and high yield forage grass;(6)Strengthen the transformation of scientific research achievements,accelerate the promotion of livestock and poultry breeding.