| In recent years,China’s economy has developed into the new normal,optimization and upgrading of industrial structure has become the focus of economic development.And the changes of leading industry are the concentrated reflection of optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,the influence factors of leading industry’s changes is the important factors of the industrial structure’s changes,therefore,to study the changes of leading industry and its influencing factors is one of the ways to explore the changes of industrial structure.Adapt to the new normal,how to adjust the industrial structure in Jiangxi province,the government in Jiangxi province should formulate what policy to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,the research on the changes of leading industry in Jiangxi province and its influencing factors provide a good scientific reference.In this paper,based on the comparable price input-output table in Jiangxi province,using the DPG analysis method,changes of leading industry in Jiangxi province during 1997-2012 and its influencing factors were studied.First,this paper introduces the advances of leading industry and the related theoretical basis,expounds the concept of leading industry,the concept of leading industry changes,the characteristics of leading industry and the economic significance of leading industry changes,at the same time,introduces the model of the leading industry--DPG model and research data--input-output table.Second,Converting the present price input-output tables into the comparable price input-output tables,as the data base,using DPG analysis method from qualitative and quantitative two directions to determine the leading industry in Jiangxi province during the period of 1997-2002,2002-2007,2007-2012 and analyzing the changes of leading industry.The study found that the leading industry in Jiangxi province during the period of 1997-2002 is energy industry,during the period of 2002-2007 is light industry,during the period of 2007-2012 is mechanical electronics industry,the changes of leading industry in Jiangxi province during 1997 to 2012 are from the energy industry to light industry and turn to mechanical electronics industry.Third,using the DPG model decomposition formula divided factors influencing the leading industry changes into seven,which are the residents’ consumption deviation effect,government consumption deviation effect,fixed assets investment deviation effect,inventory investment deviation effect,the changes of technology structure deviation effect,net export structure of intermediate demand deviation effect and net export structure of final demand deviation effect.Through the analysis find that the main factor of promoting leading industry changes in Jiangxi province during the years of 1997-2002 is technical structure changes deviation effect factor,during the years of 2002 to 2007 is net export structure of intermediate demand deviation effect factor and net export structure of intermediate demand deviation effect factors,during the years of 2007 to 2012 are the changes of technical structure deviation effect factors and net export structure of intermediate demand deviation effect factors.This suggests that the technology level and foreign trade are the important factors to promote the leading industry in Jiangxi province to change.Last,based on the research conclusion,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions.The author believes that the government should continue to play the role of science and technology which is the first productive forces,to revitalize the industry by science and technology,to promote the development of economic efficiency,simultaneously,keep the level of opening to the outside and formulate trade policy to promote the changes of leading industry in Jiangxi province and the optimization of industrial structure,in addition,give play to the role of double factors of science and technology,to increase the core advantages of industry development. |
