Formation Mechanism And Early Warning Research Of Overcapacity In Strategic Emerging Industries

Confronted with the passive influence of the financial crisis and challenges brought by the New Industrial Revolution,China has successively introduced the stimulus package and industrial policy to cultivate and develop strategic emerging industries.With the government support,the industry has developed rapidly and provided important support for economic development.However,in recent years,phenomenon such as overcapacity,profit slowdown and economic stagnation cannot be overlooked which has seriously affected the normal operation of the enterprise and the industry's healthy development.Therefore,according to the characteristics of the strategic emerging industries,it has important practical significance to realize sustainable development of strategic emerging industries through exploring the mechanism of overcapacity,setting up monitoring and prevention system.Firstly,this paper uses Production Function Approach to measure the capacity utilization of the strategic emerging industries.Secondly,on the basis of "market failure theory" and "system distortion theory",this paper put forward "government improper intervention theory",studies the reason and mechanism of the overcapacity in strategic emerging industries from the perspective of government action and supply.Finally,this paper analyses the characteristic of strategic emerging industries from expansibility,strategic,emerging and guidance quality,builds the evaluation index system of strategic emerging industries capacity utilization.On the basis of the comprehensive evaluation index,the paper uses binary Logic regression model to build early warning system with overcapacity.Photovoltaic industry is the strategic emerging industry which has the serious overcapacity.Therefore,this paper carries on the empirical analysis in photovoltaic industry to verify the theoretical assumptions and models.The paper divide the photovoltaic industry into the upper,middle and lower reaches,measure the capacity utilization rate of the industry and its three reaches by Production Function Approach.It explores how government subsidies,land interference and financial support affect overcapacity through quantitative measurement and empirical analysis.The results show that,on the one hand,not only periodical overcapacity,but also structural and institutional overcapacity coexists in the photovoltaic industry;on the other hand,though traditional government intervention has exacerbated overcapacity in the industry,its impact varies much in terms of different internal links.In general,the deeper of the government intervention in the photovoltaic industry,the more serious of the overcapacity.In the validation of binary Logit early warning model,this paper measures the capacity utilization evaluation index weights and the comprehensive index of Chinese photovoltaic industry,and uses the "front end" index to empirical test and analyze the overcapacity early warning model.The results show that,the influence degree of emerging feature of photovoltaic industry upstream link on capacity utilization is the largest,and the influence degree of strategic feature is minimized;overcapacity early warning model's prediction accuracy is 92.9%,which has good prediction effect.From the analysis of the research conclusion,to dissolve the current strategic emerging industry overcapacity problem,it is necessary to change the traditional supporting policies,according to the specific problems suit the remedy to the case,accelerate structural adjustment,eliminate backward production capacity,further promote the elements of market-oriented reform,improve the enterprise new techniques,new equipment,key technology research and its manufacturing capability,and avoid a low-end locking on the emerging industrial chain from the dynamic mechanism of innovation as the core.At the same time,the government should be based on the industry characteristics to establish the information publishing platform and capacity monitoring mechanism,.timely understand the industry status and capacity utilization,so as to correctly guide enterprises to make investment decisions.