Research On Capacity Utilization Evaluation And Surplus Warning Of Strategic Emerging Industries

In recent years,the supply-side reform in the background of the new normal of China’s economy is the logical main line of China’s economic operation.At present,not only the traditional industries have serious overcapacity in China,but also the strategic emerging industries are facing the problems of industrial imbalance and low-end development.Some industries have experienced serious overcapacity,loss of benefits,and stagnant development.The lack of high-end production capacity and the low-end overcapacity situation violates China’s original intention of using the development of emerging industries to drive the overall upgrading of the industry,wasting a lot of high-quality resources and bringing many serious negative effects.Therefore,according to the characteristics of strategic emerging industries,we will build an early warning ladder to explore the influencing factors affecting the capacity utilization of strategic emerging industries,and thus achieve the purpose of preventing overcapacity.It has an important role in the transformation and upgrading of China’s industry and the improvement of national competitiveness.As a leading technology-driven industry in China,the new-generation information technology industry has the characteristics of high technology content,strong linkage effect and low carbon environmental protection.It is bound to become an important force to lead China’s industrial upgrading and scientific and technological progress.However,in recent years,problems such as unbalanced development and increased structural contradictions on the supply side have emerged along with development.The excessive expansion of production capacity has made the utilization of the new generation information technology industry low,resulting in certain resource consumption and waste.Therefore,this paper selects the new generation information technology industry as an example to conduct empirical analysis and verify the proposed hypothesis and early warning model.This paper first reviews and evaluates the research literature on strategic emerging industries and capacity utilization at home and abroad,and analyzes and combs the relevant theories,which lays a theoretical foundation for the later evaluation of capacity utilization and early warning models.on the basis of this,by using DEA(MUILTI-STAGE)method in output aspects,and then carries out an empirical study on the influential factors by using Random Panel Tobit model.The results show that the average capacity utilization of the new generation information technology industry is only 0.647,which is far lower than the internationally recognized normal level in the perspective of the whole industry.The capacity utilization of coastal areas is higher than that of inland regions.The capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing industry is far lower than the utilization rate of the service industry.Government subsidies and financial support were both negatively affected to capacity utilization of the new generation of information technology industry,which also result in stronger negative influence on the Coastal industry and new generation of information technology manufacturing.Then,combined with the characteristics of strategic emerging industries and the empirical research of the third and fourth chapters in the theoretical foundation of Chapter 2,this paper quantifies the evaluation weights and comprehensive indexes of the indicators of the upstream manufacturing capacity utilization of the new generation of information industry,and builds a binary The Logit early warning model was followed by an empirical test and analysis of the effects of the preemptive early warning crisis model using the leading indicators.The research results show that the innovative features of the upstream manufacturing industry in the new generation of information technology industry have the greatest impact on capacity utilization,and the growth characteristics are less affected.The accuracy of the overcapacity warning model is greater than 90%,and the model prediction effect is good,which has certain practical significance for preventing overcapacity in strategic emerging industries.Finally,according to the research of the full text,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions from three aspects:transforming the strategic emerging industry development mode to improve industrial technology efficiency and production efficiency,improve the government subsidy system,and establish and strengthen the strategic emerging industry capacity early warning mechanism and system.In order to promote the efficiency utilization of strategic emerging industries and the healthy development of the industry.