An Empirical Analysis Based On The Fluctuation Of Food Price In China

“If you control the food,you control the all people”.Food security issues relate to basic human survival.Meanwhile,they directly determine the stability of the country,the people's life and the development of national economy.China is a country with a large population,and it's also a big agricultural country,so it is particularly important to ensure the stability of food security,the strategic significance is maintaining the basic principles of sustainable development.Fluctuations in food prices will directly affect the food safety problem.Therefore,comprehensive researching and analyzing the fluctuation and fluctuation influence factors of food prices in China,to understand the action mechanism of food price volatility,then take corresponding measures to mitigate the negative impact of the food price volatility to ensure national food security.From the perspective of food security upon price by qualitative research method is more,and the use of quantitative research is less,this paper tries to combine the two research methods together,then doing an in-depth analysis on the effect of food prices internal and external mechanism.First of all,this paper describes the current situation of research in the field of food security and the research status of food security in combination with China's specific national conditions,so as to determine the technical route and characteristics of this study.Secondly,from the analysis of the relationship between fluctuations in the price of food and food security,food price fluctuations of economic theory,China's food price formation mechanism reform process,China's food price system and food price fluctuation of the qualitative analysis of five aspects to put forward the theory of fluctuations in the price of food,and put forward the ARCH model and the LASSO model as the theoretical basis of this study.Third,through the establishment of ARMA,GARCH,GARCH-M and EGARCH and model analysis of the fluctuation of China's food market price.The results showed that corn and soybeans have significant volatility clustering and main food varieties showed no significantly high risk,high return characteristics,exposed the defects of Chinese food market trading mechanism.Fourth,to avoid the traditional multiple regression method easy for variable selection discomfort arising from the multicollinearity problem.Then,the valid estimation of regression parameters in the model and solve the multicollinearity problems among the variables of the lasso method to establish multiple regression model to analyze the factors that affect the price fluctuation of China's food,CPI,agricultural production prices and the price of oil is the main factors affect the price of food.Finally,on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,China's food security early warning mechanism,and put forward to the reality of social and economic life has a certain guiding significance.