The Research Of Food Security Early Warning In China

Related to economic development, social stability and national independence, food security problem, together with energy security problem and financial security problem, was regarded as one of the three major economic security problems in china. Realized the balance of supply and demand of grain at present, food security situation is overall stable in our country. But the aggregate balance is extremely fragile, which is often called "tight balance". The large population and limited land in China can be a great threat to food security, so food security in China is weak as a whole.As for this, the paper tries to summarize the risk factors systematically and establish a comprehensive index model of food security, in order to analysis the trend of grain supply and demand, and provide effective supervisory control and early warning to food security, which can help the government formulate an valid food security policy and safeguard the food security. In addition, most of the current studies measure the degree of food security by the data of the current year, few scholars can consider the impact of information in last year. On the basis of previous studies, this paper combines two consecutive years’data to measure the degree of food safety by the method of information fusion, which is the main innovation of this article.Based on the land scarcity theory, coordination of supply and demand theory and system theory, this paper analyzed the food security problem by statistical model, system analysis and the method of integrate the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. Firstly, this paper clear the connotation of food security based on the existing theory of food security; secondly, the paper point out the main factors influencing food safety and establish an index model for early warning system according to the connotation of food security. Finally, using the entropy weight model and information fusion method, the pater makes an empirical analysis and prediction of food security in China and then obtains conclusions and suggestions.The paper makes an empirical analysis of food security in China, using the data from1996-2012. Also the paper predicts the circumstance of food security in the year of2013-2014.The result indicates that food security in China has experienced a process of first fall and then rise, and the risk factors are not the same in different years. At the beginning of21century, the main factor that threat food security is the decrease of food production; but in recent years, the surge of grain imports and decrease of self-sufficiency rate becomes a significant risk factor for food security. Having reflected the food security situation in recent years, the index model for early warning system is turned to be feasible. The suggestions include improving grain production capacity, ensuring food self-sufficiency, stabilizing grain market, etc.