Risks Of Commercial Bank Commercial Property Mortgage Loan Defaults

In recent years,along with the rise of the commercial real estate,closely associated with Commercial property mortgage also showed growth.At present,although not yet in all of the domestic commercial banks to fully expand the business,only a few large-scale,financial strength of the state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks began handling minority,but has achieved good development.Commercial property financing a commercial property as collateral,cash flows generated by the pledge of real estate,such as rental income,sales and other revenue as a guarantee of repayment,it is often less than the credit risk and easy to control.However,due to the risk of changes in the longer term,the existence of the loan period of greater economic development cycle,changes and changes in the value of collateral real estate market cycle will lead to fluctuations in mortgage rates,to bring greater credit risk,credit risk measurement and control It is necessary.This article is from the current commercial bank meticulous risk management perspective,the theoretical basis of a comprehensive sort of Commercial property financing research credit risk measurement and control,further improve the current commercial bank real estate credit management framework,in order to maximize the disclosure of credit risk,help commercial banks to make effective credit decisions.Firstly,this paper combing domestic and foreign theoretical and empirical research on credit risk measurement and real estate credit risk,and secondly,to GS commercial bank financing Commercial property data analysis,21 separate performance indicators may have an impact on the loan,thus screening out of five significant impact indicators;again,based on the Commercial property mortgage data GS Bank of empirical analysis,respectively Logistic model,multivariate linear regression analysis(MCLP)and neural network model of Commercial property mortgage default risk assessment model,and comparison of the effect;and finally,the Commercial property of commercial banks financing risk control policy recommendations.The innovation of this paper is: First,the newer study.Since the Commercial property financing restrictions,the domestic literature research in this direction is very small;the second is the newer methods.In this paper,MCLP method applied to Commercial property financing risk of default judgment,and the application of the method extend from personal credit cards and mortgages to Commercial property financing,default risk and achieve better recognition results.Third,this study has good practical significance.Findings help to help commercial banks to effectively identify regulatory risk financing Commercial property.