Financial Risk Analysis Of Housing Monetary Resettlement Project In The Reconstruction Of Urban Village

With the accelerated process of urbanization,the number of urban villages grows,resulting in the problem of urban village.The reconstruction of urban village is not only conducive to improving the city’s landscape style and the living environment of the villagers,but also improves the efficiency of land use.The core of reconstruction of urban villages in the city is resettlement compensation.At present,the academic research on the resettlement of the village in the city,mainly focus on the comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of resettlement,the improvement of laws and regulations,the quality of life and social security,the specific placement of the case study.But it is worth noting that the government in the transformation of the city’s resettlement compensation project is a high risk project,there are a lot of uncertainty factors in the process,especially in the use of financial funds.Although the reconstruction of urban villages is beneficial to people,but as an investment project,the local government should also consider their own financial and material resources and avoid financial risks,especially in the resettlement compensation part which needs a lot of financial funds.How to identify and analyze the risks ahead of time will be the key to the government in the reconstruction of urban villages.Therefore,this paper studies the housing monetary resettlement compensation in the reconstruction of urban villages,and discusses the application of risk analysis theory and method in the pre-decision-making stage of the government.The main research contents are as follows:(1)Financial risk factors identification of monetary resettlement project in the reconstruction of the city village.According to the analysis of the literature and the characteristics of the in the reconstruction of urban villages,analyze the financial risk sources and types of monetary resettlement projects.And then using the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to sort the key elements and identify the main risk variables.The main risk variables include government compensation standards,resettlement area differences,floor price fluctuations,the price of commercial housing sales,the demolition of the game,the volume of land and so on.(2)The financial risk quantification of monetary resettlement based on Monte Carlo simulation.Based on the identification of relevant literature,theory and risk factors,the financial risk of the project was quantified by constructing the Monte Carlo simulation model.Analysis framework includes risk assessment,selection of evaluation index,risk simulation and so on.Finally,taking the S village in Hangzhou city as an example,the paper introduced detailed data and simulated the net present value of various risk parameters by using Monte Carlo method,and analyzed the simulation results.(3)Measures for risk prevention.After the completion of risk identification and risk quantification,the author will put forward specific prevention and control measures mainly for policy,markets,financial,and social risk management.Research shows that:(1)there are 9 main risk variables,according to influence degree from large to small is as follows: the resettlement area difference,the floor price fluctuation,placement price increase,volume rate changes,price fluctuations administrative expenses increased,advance placement and resettlement of the population,reward increase renovation costs increase.We should try to control the take advantage or use of these risks(2)the quantitative analysis of the above risk variables by the Monte Carlo simulation experiment.Analytical model in the paper is widely applied and practical;it can help the government to identify and analyze the risk of financial fund,and help to make scientific and reasonable decision.