Shaanxi Province Local Government Debt Risk Research Based On The KMV Model

In recent years, China's local government debt scale expanding, and the transparency effect of debt data, makes the scholars which at home and abroad were particularly concerned on this question. The emergence of the European debt crisis for the Chinese government debt wake-up call. Chinese governments at all levels using various financing platform, through direct loans from Banks, issuing bonds and other way to raise a lot of money, for the local economic and social development has played a positive role in promoting. However, can not be ignored is that as China's economic growth by high speed to low speed conversion process, in fiscal revenue will be inevitably affected, local governments can't on time to repay debts that are due, not only cause of regional financial crisis, even affects the economic development and social stability of the whole country. Shaanxi province as a typical province of economic development in western China, the local government debt risk research can provide reference for other western provinces. So, in the country local government debt under the background of economic development, local government debt risk characteristics of Shaanxi province is in a state of what? What is the real cause behind the debt rising? What kind of method should choose to make scientific evaluation of local government debt risk in Shaanxi? How much is the debt risk? What should we do to solve the problem of local government debt risk? These are the problem to be solved in this paper.In this paper, the research content mainly includes. First, in combing the domestic and foreign research on local government debt risk, on the basis of the literature from the debt risk, the structure of debt risk, management risk, external debt risk four aspects, analysis of the current situation of Shaanxi province local government debt risk, and from the system and the soft budget constraint, the official promotion incentives three dimensions analyze the real causes of the debt risk. Secondly, in many empirical approach, this paper chose the extension of KMV model in Shaanxi province to evaluate the risk of local government debt. Finally, according to the conclusions of this paper puts forward the prevention and control of local government debt risk policy Suggestions. In this paper, the research shows that, in consideration of the central government to local government compensatory maturing debt, under the model of Shaanxi province debt risk of local government in the near future, is smaller in safety control; In Shaanxi province from 2014 to 2017, however, the debt ratios and leverage the analysis results show that local government debt risk in Shaanxi province increase or decrease year by year, the long-term view, close to or even more than international cordon, should cause enough attention. In addition, because the concealment of the local government debt in China, the current public data may only be a part of the real data, therefore, the local government debt risk awareness should be further strengthened. It should establish and perfect debt issuance, management and supervision of the relevant laws and regulations, the equilibrium of the central government and local government finance rights, and diversified investors in three aspects of public products, gradually control the ballooning debt scale and the debt risk of agglomeration.