Research On PPP Project Risk Sharing Model Of Urban Rail Transit Based On Game Theory

Urban rail transit as a large capacity transport,has been developing rapidly in many big city.However,the high cost makes it difficult to meet the needs of urban rail transit by relying solely on government investment in the past.In this case,PPP model,as an innovative financing model that can effectively attract social capital and technology,has been paid more and more attention.However,the PPP project of urban rail transit has the characteristics of large investment,long time,high risk,and so on,whether the main risks existing in the project can be allocated fairly and reasonably is the key to the success of the project.Therefore,the research on the project risk sharing can provide the basis for the reasonable risk sharing and help the project to be completed successfully.(1)This paper analyzes the urban rail transit project financing characteristic,defines the concepts and characteristics of PPP model,analysis utility of urban rail traffic PPP project,studies the characteristics and principles of PPP project risk sharing.Then the paper introduces the non-cooperative game model,stochastic cooperative game model and evolutionary game model.(2)The city rail transportation PPP project risk sharing framework,including the identification and classification of risk factors,risk sharing subject design and quantification,risk sharing process,and each part is studied.Among them,based on risk sharing in the main division,the interests of target are analyzed;based on a comprehensive identification of risk factors,the set value statistics model of risk factors important degree were calculated,and the risk classification;finally we design a risk sharing process.(3)This paper makes an analysis of the evolution of the attitude of the risk sharing subject in the face of risk by constructing the evolutionary game model,and analyzes the sharing body eventually evolved into the positive cooperation conditions.By constructing a static game model to classify non sharing risk and sharing risk,it is concluded that the risk preference degree of the subject and the output benefit of the project are the basis for determining whether the risk is shared.Among them,the sharing risk,by constructing a stochastic cooperative game model to study the ratio of sharing body,and the construction of the modified Shapley value to solve stochastic cooperative game model.(4)Finally,the Beijing Metro Line X project is analyzed,the main risk attitude is simulated,the project risks are classified,and then get the risk sharing ratio of the public sector,the private sector and loan department.The paper also gives some suggestions on the design of risk sharing system for PPP project of urban rail transit.