Analysis Of Influence Factors On Yield Rates Of Interbank Interest Rates Bond In China

The interbank bond market has gradually become an important investment and financing platform for the government, financing institutions, enterprises and companies after more than ten years' development. The majority of the bonds in the interbank bond market invested by the institutions are interest rate bonds, that is, the national bond, local government bond, policy bank bonds, etc. When the institution invests the interest rates bond, it will be affected by both macro and micro factors, so that the investment behavior may be affected by a certain risk. In order to guarantee the profit of the institutional investment and the probability reduction of the loss, to some extent, the analysis of the influence factors of yields rates on the interest rate bond is particularly important.Combining the qualitative and the quantitative methods, the thesis has made a summary of the bond market home and abroad. According to the feature of China's interbank bond market, four key factors that may affect the interest rates bond of the interbank bond market have been put forward, namely, economic growth, inflation, monetary policy and interbank lending market liquidity. Through the theoretical research, the influencing mechanism of the economic growth, inflation, monetary policy and the interbank money market liquidity on the interest rate yields is analyzed, and the relationship between interest rate yields and the above four factors is further analyzed. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this thesis also uses the quantitative methods to quantify the four factors which may affect the interest rate yields. By selecting the appropriate indicators data on behalf of the influence factors, that is, quantify the influencing factors into the industrial production index, the CPI index, index of narrow money supply (Ml),7-day pledged repo rate (R07). Through the establishment of multiple linear regression model, the influence of the four indicators on the interest rates yields is analyzed. Results show that the short-term interest rate debt is much more affected by the fluctuates of the influence factors than the long-term interest rates of debt. Industrial production index, the CPI index and R07 index show a positive correlation with the interest rate yields. While the three index rises, bond yields will rise and the interest rate debt prices will decrease. M1 index is negatively related to the interest rates yields. When Ml index rises, the interest rates yields will decease and the rate of debt prices will rise.