Studies On Transmission Effects Of China's Interest Rates

Interest rates is one of the most important economic variables that is concerned. Its importance is, as the prices of using money, the economic impact of interest rates not only contains the influence of economic activity to microeconomic units but also contains both the money market and also the products market. The level of interest rates by not only money market but also product markets, the common function of more counterproductive and two market, so, interest rates in the economic system have both to regulate the economy function and reflect economic operation condition of signal functions in an economy system, the operation status of influence. Therefore, interest rates in the world monetary policy has an important position. Our country for a long time for intermediary goal in the money supply, as the annual interest rate marketization, 1996, China officially proposed by the monetary amount into measures to price controls the transition period, tool interest rate policy has become China's monetary policy is an important part of one and implementing measures. However, with the continuous development of the economy and global economic environment changes, market-oriented interest rate reform not only faced its own system, the more must consider how to adapt to changing economic environment, the 2007 global financial crisis erupted and economic recovery around China faces huge inflationary pressures are fluoroscopy gives, China's market-oriented interest rate reform efforts and progress requires both strengthen, in response to the increasingly complex economic environment.China's current rates of interest rate policy regulation system of economic operation and currency supply exists on the ability to play obstacles. At present in China means of monetary policy monetary amount regulation and price the state also gave tool coexist interest rate to the macro-economy judgment cause trouble. Monetary quantity for monetary policy mainly controls malpractice already gradually highlight, whether other countries or China's currency, are subject to bring inflation quantity control economic problem hidden, therefore, whether the reference of foreign experience or basis our country's actual situation, the currency amount control tools to manage the transition to the rates of guaranteeing our country's economy is the inevitable choice of steady rapid development. However, monetary amount gradually weakening and controlling effect of our country interest rate marketization stagnant condition resulting in controlling effect of monetary policy challenge this, our country, not only in the overall economic operation will get fluctuations. Monetary policy with our interest rates non-market characteristics are connected. Interest rates non-market makes interest rates as the condition of intermediate target for monetary policy is not fully mature, and of the migration is number tools in some extent hindered the process of liberalization of interest rate in China. Two factors is obviously mutual influence interdependent relationship. This not only give me interest rates further play conductive effect, also made the difficult for China's economic development road increased unstable factors. In addition, the constant change of the financial environment for China's interest rates conduction effect presents new challenges. Capital securitisation unceasingly thorough and financial derivatives unceasing innovation, make monetary supply and demand of increasingly complicated relationship, the capital market economic system running in one country's status among are becoming more and more important, not only lies in its efficient capital resources allocation for the global economic development ability to bring vigor, more importantly, its own unique speculative and high risk of global economic operation, increasing uncertainty in modern times were and capital market economic crisis instability and asset prices volatile are linked.In view of the above understanding, based on interest rates on Chinese economic operation of the theme of the conductive effect, mainly includes two aspects: one is based on output and price effects of econometric analysis to economic entity recognition rate fluctuation; the effect 2 it is through the size of credit and asset price effects of econometric analysis on Banks, recognition rate volatility behavior and financial market effect. Considering the amount and interest rates in China closely, as well as interest rate policy implementation process is often accompanied by monetary quantity control, this paper studies the commencement of interest rates, will take effect of monetaryamount as the important reference variables.The paper structure arrangement and the main innovation points below:First, the estimation method is adopted in this paper roll-out of interest rate to describe the controlling effect, not only can embody the controlling effect when interest rates into change, also avoided a single sample to interval estimation weakening of statistical properties. Roll-out estimation results more persuasive and pertinence, already can reflect different economic condition controlling effect characteristics, the rate of interest could also reaction when controlling effect into sex change, the more important is, using method can estimate roll-out institutional change analysis, the leading avoid such date exist to analysis of a deviation from real economic significance.Second, analysis of macroeconomic regulation interest rates when conduction mechanism, effect and by not only to its own longitudinal comparison, the more into the money supply control effect and conduction mechanism as reference, it can compare for monetary policy tool with the interest rate and currency supply in controlling effect and transmission mechanism is different, also can on the transverse longitudinal comparison through comprehensive controlling effect and that interest rate changes more accurate transmission mechanism of the conclusion, that conclusion is more objective and realistic significance.Third, the conduction mechanism analysis of interest rates will capital markets as interest rates among into paper transmission channel, which makes the interest rates the comprehensive analysis of the conduction mechanism more comprehensive more proactive. China's relevant analysis capital markets as interest rates transmission channel related articles) is not uncommon, but will capital market interest rate transmission mechanism into the system of research paper does not see more, comprehensive comparison of the actual interest rate on capital market economy and the article had less influence. Through comparing the interest rate on the actual economic and capital market control effect is different, can analyze the interest rate "weak effect" for the reality of our country economy and whether asset prices appear the root of deviation. Facts show, produce the departure is the main reason of the money supply to the capital market influence degree of larger, social idle capital flows of capital market phenomenon is obvious, leading to the asset price fluctuations.