Quantitative Analysis On The Choice Of Monetary Policy Intermediary Gioals

The choice of monetary policy intermediary goals is an important step of conduction mechanism of monetary policy. With the steady and continuous development of China's economy, its financial structure is in the process of optimization and progress, and marketization of our social economy gradually levels up. Changes in finance and economic fields have great impact to the tradition conduction mechanism in monetary policy of our center bank. The validity of the original monetary policy intermediary goal will change. So reappraising and choosing a suitable monetary policy transmission channel and leveling up the total validity under the present condition. Hereto, basic judgment of present intermediate targets of monetary policy of Chinese if formed by the synthesis of each chapter. At present, monetary aggregates are basically effective, but the dropping of their effectiveness is inevitable. Single target of interest rate is infeasible, either. Exchange rate cannot be the major intermediate target. Under this condition, monetary aggregates should still be the major target in China currently, with quantity of loans and interest rate as auxiliary target. From a long-term point of view, the monetary policy frame, which involves multiple intermediate targets and the separation and dispersion of traditional intermediate targets, are necessary for China. Generally speaking, in future monetary policy frame, interest rate will be the major adjusting target; in special period of high level of inflation, monetary aggregates or quantity of loans can be the discretionary controlling center according to circumstances. In addition, a collection of informative variable, including interest rate, monetary aggregates, quantity of loans, exchange rate and other economic variables, and an analytical frame should be set up.